The supply of new condominiums in Manhattan – a combination of listed and unlisted inventory – was 28 percent below the ten-year average in the third quarter. This is according to current data from Brown Harris Stevens Development Marketing (BHSDM). However, the firm's analysts are forecasting a larger supply for the fourth quarter than originally assumed.
Manhattan currently has an inventory of 3,027 new condominiums, which is below the ten-year average of 4,209 units. However, the projected supply amounts to 3,796 units, representing a 40 percent increase compared to the 2,710 units of the previous year. This indicates an acceleration of market development in the last three months of 2026.
Challenges and Outlook in Q3
Stephen Kliegerman, President of BHSDM, commented on the challenges of the third quarter. He emphasised that, due to low inventory and not all contracts being reported, it was an extraordinarily difficult quarter for isolated analysis. He stated that it was crucial to consider factors beyond mere numbers to fully grasp the overall status and scope of the new development market.
In the third quarter of 2026, 240 new condominium contracts were signed in Manhattan. This represents a 27 percent decrease compared to the 331 contracts of the previous year and a 34 percent decrease compared to the seasonally adjusted ten-year average of 362 contracts, according to BHSDM. The contract volume amounted to 961 million US dollars, a 13 percent decrease compared to 1.1 billion US dollars in the previous year and a 31 percent decrease compared to the ten-year average of 1.4 billion US dollars.
BHSDM points out that the reported contract volume does not account for unreported contracts, which include the 80 Clarkson Street project, for which an estimated sales volume of 2.4 billion US dollars is projected. By the end of the third quarter, a cumulative 938 contracts had been signed, representing a 13 percent decrease year-on-year and 20 percent below the ten-year average of 1,171 units.
Regional Developments and Forecasts
The real supply in Manhattan is expected to focus on units priced at 2,000 US dollars per square foot in the fourth quarter, with additional inventory sufficient for approximately 12 months. It is anticipated that 768 units will come onto the market in the fourth quarter, although not all will be publicly available. Approximately 70 percent of the fourth-quarter supply is concentrated in the four residential areas with the lowest current inventory:
- —Downtown West
- —Upper East Side
- —East 14th Street to 34th Street
- —West 14th Street to 34th Street
Robin Schneiderman, Managing Director at BHSDM, noted that Manhattan's real supply has reached ten-year lows and new units on the market have also been historically low. However, he sees relief on the horizon, as more projects are set to launch in Manhattan in the fourth quarter than in any other quarter of the last ten years.
In Brooklyn, new contracts signed in the third quarter decreased by 21 percent year-on-year to 198. The total sales volume in signed contracts this year amounted to 1.2 billion US dollars, an 8 percent decrease compared to the third quarter of 2025, but roughly in line with the ten-year average. Similar to Manhattan, Brooklyn's project pipeline indicates a successful fourth quarter, with 2,139 units in preparation, a 5 percent increase compared to the 2,037 units of the previous year.
Jason Thomas, Senior Vice President for Research and Market Analysis at BHSDM, expressed hope that the new launches can keep pace with signed contracts to allow for a stabilisation of real supply and avoid further significant declines.
