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llustration by Lanette Behiry / Real Estate News
Affordability is likely to ease, yet litigation will persist and the role of the government in housing reform remains uncertain.
**Key takeaways**
- Ongoing lawsuits force the sector to confront major choices, notably the Sitzer/Burnett and Gibson settlements, as 2026 approaches.
- MLSs are expected to gain autonomy as the NAR shifts from rule‑making to advocacy.
- With midterm elections looming, federal lawmakers may finally address affordability through new legislation.
- Home sales, inventory and prices should continue a slow normalization, but 2026 promises a volatile real‑estate landscape.
The past three years have seen buyers and sellers stuck in a “low‑gear” market while the industry wrestles with its own operational questions. In 2023, the Sitzer/Burnett ruling disrupted buyer‑agent commissions. Settlements followed in 2024, sparking hope for a fresh start. However, 2025 introduced fresh lawsuits over private listings and mandatory membership, challenging the commission settlements anew.
**What 2026 may bring**
*Potential reversal of commission settlements*
Real‑estate consultant Rob Hahn, known for provocative commentary on his Notorious ROB Substack, suggests that the Sitzer/Burnett and Gibson agreements could be overturned. These deals created a roughly $1 billion settlement fund for sellers and prompted policy shifts at the NAR regarding buyer‑agent commissions. If the three‑judge panel in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit vacates the settlements—oral arguments are slated for Jan. 14, with a decision expected later in 2026—the industry could face “pure chaos.” Hahn notes that a new settlement would likely demand higher damages, stricter policy changes, or both, rendering the current systems and training moot.
*MLS consolidation accelerates*
Redfin predicts that as the NAR moves away from rule‑making toward advocacy, smaller MLSs will merge into larger networks. With over 500 MLSs nationwide, the lack of standardized rules could confuse consumers. Redfin’s chief economist, Daryl Fairweather, emphasizes that this uncertainty will underscore the value of agents well‑versed in local MLS regulations.
*Rise of the “lifestyle renter”*
Zillow’s 2025 Consumer Housing Trends report shows only 37% of renters would buy even if mortgage rates fell—a drop from 45% the previous year. Nearly 60% plan to keep renting in 2026. Zillow projects rent affordability to improve in major markets, with apartment rents rising just 0.3% that year.
*Government action on housing reform*
Housing affordability was a bipartisan priority in 2025. Redfin expects this shared concern to translate into legislative moves before the 2026 midterms. President Donald Trump hinted at a major housing reform announcement, and lawmakers are likely to introduce bills targeting affordability and zoning changes. However, the legislative process is slow; Redfin does not anticipate a return to “normalcy” in housing costs until around 2030.
