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rad Case, formerly of the Federal Reserve, Nareit, and Fannie Mae, has joined Homes.com as chief residential economist. With over 35 years in the housing sector, he will be the company’s primary voice on U.S. market, financial, and economic trends.
In his new position, Case will analyze home prices, inventory, affordability, construction activity, the buy‑vs‑rent debate, and how interest‑rate cuts influence demand. He explained his daily routine in a RISMedia interview, describing how he gathers and interprets data, reflects on past roles, and navigates the uncertainties of economic forecasting.
**2026 Market Outlook**
When asked about the 2026 housing market, Case noted a modest improvement in home availability and price stability, which should encourage buyer activity. He cautioned that rising insurance and property‑tax costs could worsen affordability. Overall, he sees a better alignment between buyers and sellers, leading to more transactions.
**Future Reports for Homes.com**
Case has analysts in 30 U.S. cities. He aims to produce reports that answer local market questions without delving into each city’s specifics—that’s the analysts’ job. He is particularly interested in dissecting median price changes: a rise could mean overall price growth, a surge in high‑end sales, or increased home‑improvement activity. He wants to explain the drivers behind price shifts at both national and local levels.
**Research Methodology**
Case uses a sophisticated model that predicts the probability of a recession within the next 12 months. The model incorporates 12–13 variables and is updated five times a month. He stresses that the model’s discipline prevents his outlook from being swayed by single data points or prevailing opinions. While the model informs his judgments, he still applies personal insight, especially when the model’s signals conflict with his experience.
He built the model himself, starting from a pool of hundreds of variables with monthly data dating back to the late 1960s. Unlike many models that weight all past periods equally, his relevance‑based approach gives more weight to historical periods most similar to the present.
**Engagement with Other Economists**
Case follows a select group of economists, including former Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, with whom he shares a similar view of the economy. He acknowledges competition to avoid being wrong but notes that even accurate forecasts can fail if people behave unexpectedly. He has consistently warned that while risk of recession has risen, data show only minor signs of weakness.
**Roles at Fannie Mae and the Fed**
At Fannie Mae, he produced monthly macro forecasts and weekly internal summaries of events affecting the business, maintaining discipline by focusing on key variables rather than recent conversations. At the Fed, he worked on Basel II, ensuring banks accounted for mortgage risk at the portfolio level rather than merely being conservative. He collaborated mainly with Vice Chair Roger Ferguson and had limited interaction with Chair Alan Greenspan but more with Ben Bernanke.
**Impact on Homes.com**
Case’s goal is to make Homes.com the go‑to source for real‑estate data worldwide, especially for owner‑occupied U.S. markets. He will provide property‑level and market‑level data, as well as articles that help buyers and sellers navigate the market. His work supports local analysts and offers national context to simplify transactions.
**Fed Politics and Learning**
He refrains from commenting on political pressure on the Fed, emphasizing the institution’s focus on full employment and price stability. Despite his experience, he continually learns, now incorporating the employment‑to‑population ratio of vulnerable groups—Black, Hispanic, women, youth, and low‑education workers—into his recession‑probability assessment. He also monitors international data, such as OECD reports, to spot early warning signs that could affect the U.S.
**Work Style and Location**
Based in Arlington, Virginia, just across the Potomac from Washington, D.C., Case’s day is a mix of data evaluation, writing, and constant communication with analysts in 30 cities, reporters, and internal teams. He uses automated tools to flag anomalies, like unusual activity in San Antonio, and writes about new data on building inputs (e.g., lumber prices) promptly.
**Advice to Real‑Estate Professionals**
He stresses that buying or selling is costly and time‑consuming; reducing these costs can increase transaction frequency. He encourages agents, brokers, and executives to use Homes.com’s information, checklists, and educational content to make informed decisions. He advises homeowners considering job moves to rely on reliable data to avoid costly mistakes.
**Personal Interactions**
Friends and family often ask for mortgage‑rate timing advice. Case explains that such decisions are too uncertain to predict confidently; instead, he recommends locking in a rate to focus on other purchase aspects.
**Performance Metrics**
Ultimately, Case measures success by audience engagement: if readers consume his articles and apply his insights, he considers his work effective. He values ongoing conversations with users as the primary judge of his performance.
