F
air‑value for Anywhere Real Estate remains at roughly $11.67 a share, with a 12.5 % discount rate and an expected 7.9 % annual revenue growth. The outlook has steadied even as Street research has become more bullish after Compass’s all‑stock acquisition, citing scale, cost synergies and a clearer deleveraging path.
**Bullish signals**
BTIG projects the merged entity to field 320 k agents, capture about 15 % of the national market, and generate $12.8 B in 2025 revenue, reinforcing a growth narrative. It also estimates $225 M in annual cost synergies—about 8 % of combined operating expenses—boosting margins and justifying the current multiple. JPMorgan lifted its rating to Neutral with a $10 target, calling the deal a good value for shareholders. Barclays moved to Equal Weight and raised its target to $11 from $3.50, reflecting improved balance‑sheet prospects and reduced execution risk.
**Bearish concerns**
Barclays warns that antitrust scrutiny could delay or derail the transaction, tempering upside. BTIG notes the combined firm will start with a high leverage ratio (net debt/EBITDA 4.4×) and plans to trim it to 1.5× by 2028, a process that carries execution risk for equity valuation.
**Deal specifics**
Compass will acquire Anywhere in an all‑stock deal valuing the company at about $1.7 B. Shareholders receive 1.436 Compass shares per Anywhere share, giving them roughly 22 % of the combined company. The combined enterprise value is projected near $10 B, including assumed debt. Morgan Stanley has committed $750 M of financing, and the transaction is slated to close in 2H 2026 pending shareholder and regulatory approval. Anywhere completed its 2022 share‑repurchase plan, buying back 8.76 M shares for $96.96 M (≈7.55 % of shares outstanding) and has not announced further buybacks. FINRA is investigating pre‑announcement trading related to Anywhere’s failed takeover bid for Douglas Elliman, which was valued at over $4 per share before becoming public.
