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new study warns that a 2026 merger between Compass and Anywhere Real Estate could push the combined brokerage over a 30 % share in several U.S. metropolitan markets, breaching federal antitrust limits. Compass originally projected that the deal would create a global network of roughly 340,000 agents operating in about 120 countries and territories.

    The analysis, released by The Capitol Forum—a watchdog that examines regulatory impacts on competition—shows that the post‑merger entity could hold “potentially illegal overlaps” in at least 12 core metro markets. Key cities include Seattle, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, parts of New York City, and Washington, D.C. A 30 % market share is significant because the 2023 FTC and DOJ Merger Guidelines treat shares above that threshold as presumptively unlawful.

    Beyond the major hubs, the research suggests the merged firm would also dominate resort‑ and luxury‑focused markets. The team used RealTrends Verified transaction‑dollar data to assess market shares, noting that the dataset relies on voluntary submissions and minimum thresholds (25 transactions or $10 million for agents; 40 transactions or $16 million for teams). This could undercount smaller competitors and inflate the perceived dominance of the leading brokerages.

    The report raises concerns that Compass’s newfound power could translate into higher costs for consumers. An unnamed agent affiliated with Anywhere warned that the company would likely seek a return on its investment through increased commissions on public listings and higher fees for brokers under its umbrella.

    Consumer advocacy groups, notably the Consumer Policy Center, have long cautioned that further consolidation could erode market competition and harm buyers and sellers. The Capitol Forum’s findings arrive amid growing calls for the DOJ to conduct a more rigorous review. In a December 16 letter to a senior DOJ antitrust official, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Ron Wyden highlighted the deal’s significant antitrust implications, stressing the risk to independent firms and consumers amid an ongoing housing affordability crisis. They warned that the merger could enable the combined entity to keep commission rates artificially high and exert greater control over the real estate market, limiting consumer choice and complicating the home‑buying process.