M
ortgage rates slipped again this week, easing the cost of a 2026 home purchase for buyers who already hold an edge over sellers.
**Key takeaways**
- The 30‑year fixed‑rate mortgage averaged 6.18% this week, a modest drop from 6.21% the previous week and close to the lowest 2025 level seen in late October. Freddie Mac reports that rates have stayed within a tight band for almost three months.
- With the Federal Reserve’s policy stance largely priced in, limited new data amid the government shutdown, and thin holiday trading, economists predict rates will “continue to drift rather than break sharply in either direction.”
- Mortgage applications fell 5% in the week ending Dec. 19, and seasonally adjusted purchase applications were down 4% from the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
- Sellers outnumber buyers nationwide by 37.2%, more than double last year’s gap, giving buyers a favorable position as the new year begins.
**What to watch**
- Upcoming economic releases—jobs data on Jan. 9 and the next inflation report on Jan. 13—may influence rates, but most economists expect them to hover near current levels into early 2026.
- Local market conditions will be decisive. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, stresses that inventory levels at various price points, the speed of local activity, and the frequency of sales below asking price will guide buyers on timing.
- Redfin’s analysis shows Austin, Texas, as the strongest buyers’ market, with 114% more sellers than buyers in November, while Nassau County, New York, remains a sellers’ market with 39.1% fewer sellers than buyers.
- Wage growth is projected to outpace home‑price growth next year, according to Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economics research. Even with high prices, buyers may secure concessions from sellers, improving affordability.
**Implications for buyers**
- The slight decline in mortgage rates, coupled with a sellers‑heavy market, creates a window of opportunity for buyers ready to re‑enter the market in January.
- Monitoring local inventory, transaction pace, and price concessions will help buyers identify the optimal moment to lock in a mortgage.
- While the broader economy remains uncertain, the current trend suggests that rates will remain stable, allowing buyers to plan without fearing sudden spikes.
In summary, mortgage rates are easing toward their 2025 low, applications are slowing, and sellers dominate the market. Buyers who focus on local market signals and anticipate modest wage growth can capitalize on the favorable conditions expected to persist into early 2026.
