T
hanksgiving last week reminded me how much I can still give thanks for. Amid family and gratitude, a surprising note from realtor.com landed in my inbox: home values in Monroe County have surged 75% since 2019, ranking seventh in the nation for appreciation. In a market that’s otherwise volatile and declining, that spike is worth noting.
Rochester’s housing story is even more striking. Zillow projects a 2.6% rise in home values next year—small compared to the rapid growth of the past six years, but significant when 105 of the 300 largest metros are experiencing price drops. The city is not only holding its ground; it’s stabilizing at the top of the field, a feat many cities envy.
The city’s success stems from affordability, quality of life, and measured growth. While the Sun Belt struggles to rebound from pandemic lows, the Northeast and Midwest remain anchored by tight inventory and steady demand. Rochester’s performance outpaces both regional and national trends.
Why is the national market frozen? Three forces converge: demographics, economics, and supply constraints. Home turnover is at a 30‑year low—only 2.8% of homes change hands annually. Millions of Americans are locked into mortgages below 4%, giving them no incentive to sell. When people stay put, inventory doesn’t refresh, and scarcity becomes permanent.
Baby Boomers, the wealthiest generation in U.S. history, are largely staying in place—61% say they won’t sell. Their decision removes millions of units from the market. Younger buyers face a delayed entry: the median age of a first‑time buyer is now 40, up from the late 20s a generation ago, and the share of first‑time buyers has fallen to 21%, the lowest ever. Millennials and Gen Z are buying later, with more debt and competition.
These trends create a structural immobility that feels like a market “calcification.” New construction can’t break the logjam. The country needs roughly 440,000 more construction workers annually to meet baseline demand, yet material costs have risen 41.6% since the pandemic, and construction expenses are up 5‑7% this year. Regulatory hurdles further delay projects. Builders are working, but not enough to expand supply meaningfully.
Policy focus is misplaced. A proposed 50‑year mortgage offers the illusion of affordability while extending debt across a lifetime. With the median first‑time buyer now 40, such a loan would mean paying off a mortgage at age 90—bank‑sponsored servitude, not ownership. Most bankers I’ve spoken to dismiss it as absurd.
Scarcity keeps Rochester’s values high, but it also bars many potential homeowners—especially first‑time buyers—from entering the market. Tight inventory and elevated prices push younger buyers out of the most reliable path to long‑term financial security: homeownership. The market may be structurally sound, but its entry point is narrowing, steepening, and delaying.
As the year ends, gratitude for Rochester’s housing resilience remains, but complacency is not an option. Future stability and open pathways to homeownership require coordinated action: zoning reform, down‑payment assistance, and tax incentives that make construction financially viable again. If these steps are taken, next year may bring reasons to celebrate progress.
Mark Siwiec, Broker/Owner of Elysian Homes by Mark Siwiec and Associates, has over 30 years of real‑estate experience and $1 billion in career sales. He shares market insights in his monthly column, helping readers navigate the evolving real‑estate landscape. For more information, visit Elysian Homes or call 585‑330‑8750.
