F
orty-eight percent of senior housing professionals and investors surveyed by CBRE predict a 3 to 7% increase in rental rates over the next year for active adult, independent living, assisted living, and memory care communities.

    This forecast is lower than the previous survey's 63%, but still indicates a moderate level of optimism. The October survey found no clear consensus on expected rent growth, unlike the April survey which predicted a 3% increase.

    Predictions varied across senior living sectors: 42.1% of respondents expected a 3 to 7% increase for active adult communities, while 38.9% made the same prediction for Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs). Fewer participants predicted rent increases in memory care and independent living segments.

    Only 5.3% of respondents forecasted rent growth of 7% or more specifically for memory care. No one expected such growth for active adult, independent living, assisted living, or CCRCs. Meanwhile, 20% of participants now expect no change in rental rates, up from nearly zero in April.

    CBRE's findings contrast with the Urban Land Institute's (ULI) forecast of a 5% increase in senior housing rental rates for 2024 and 2025, followed by a 5.3% growth in 2026 – higher than the 15-year average. ULI also predicted no changes in rental rates for senior housing in 2026, with expectations that the sector will outperform long-term averages.