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new residential complex is being built in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, with construction slated to begin on 20 October 2025.

    Chinese officials are unlikely to intervene heavily in the faltering housing market, analysts told CNBC, even as the slump continues to drag on growth. The Central Committee will conclude a four‑day meeting on Thursday, setting priorities for the next five years. Beijing’s view is that the property sector’s drag on the economy has eased, and that technological development is now the pressing concern. Ning Zhu, author of *China’s Guaranteed Bubble*, argues that this focus means the government will not introduce major new real‑estate stimulus.

    After years of worry over developers’ debt and a subsequent crackdown, state media this month claimed that “risks in key areas have been effectively prevented and mitigated.” The statement was part of a series celebrating five years of progress and Beijing’s push into tech. This contrasts sharply with most analysts’ outlook. “The government believes the property market is bottoming,” Zhu said, adding that the process will be gradual and may take longer than expected.

    Recent data illustrate the gap between Beijing’s optimism and market reality. China’s Statistics Bureau reported that high‑tech manufacturing grew 9.6 % in the first nine months of 2025, outpacing the 6.2 % rise in overall industrial output. In contrast, real‑estate investment fell 13.9 % year‑on‑year over the same period, extending the sector’s decline into September and pushing fixed‑asset investment into negative territory—a first since the COVID‑19 pandemic. Just over a year after Beijing called for a halt to the property downturn, there are still few signs of a reversal.

    Fitch Ratings director Lulu Shi said it is hard to predict when the market will bottom. “The overall population, demographics, employment situation, and housing inventory are all worsening,” she noted. China’s declining birth rate foreshadows weaker future demand, while job and income uncertainty dampen buyer confidence.

    Home‑price declines have also weighed on sentiment. Goldman Sachs’ analysis of data from China’s 70 largest cities showed that the weighted average price of new homes fell 2.7 % in September year‑on‑year, steeper than the 2.1 % drop in August. Prices of secondary homes—those already sold once—have plunged 5 % to 20 % over the past year, according to a mix of official and third‑party figures.

    Beijing is unlikely to emphasize property policy, whether through additional support or curbing speculation, according to Bruce Pang, adjunct associate professor at CUHK Business School. Multi‑year plans tend to focus on new growth engines rather than the real‑estate sector.

    Easing measures introduced in August, such as relaxed restrictions on multiple property purchases in major cities, have done little to lift sentiment. The changes mainly applied to city outskirts rather than the most attractive downtown areas. S&P Global Ratings earlier this month forecast property sales to fall 8 % this year, worse than earlier estimates, and predict another drop of at least 6 % next year as the market bottom remains elusive. Moody’s Ratings also expects a single‑digit decline in home sales over the next 12 to 18 months. Daniel Zhou, an analyst at Moody’s, said the market should gradually stabilize under existing policy measures.

    The real‑estate slump continues to weigh heavily on China’s economy, even as the sector’s share of output has shrunk from more than a quarter. Manufacturing and exports have helped offset the decline. Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, described the economy as operating in a “two‑speed” mode: consumption/property as the weak track, exports/manufacturing as the strong track. This pattern will persist until policymakers can no longer rely on external demand to drive growth.

    Exports have remained unexpectedly robust this year, with September growth of 8.3 % year‑on‑year, despite a 27 % plunge in shipments to the United States. For real estate, Shi said it is very hard to see a growth trend. “We believe there will be more policies, but it’s not likely that one policy can change the entire situation.” Once the decline in home prices eases, she expects more buyers to gradually return to the market.