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recent Federal Reserve paper suggests that rising home prices, not buyer agreements, are a more likely factor in declining commission rates. The study analyzed data from 15 states with buyer agreement laws and found no correlation between the introduction of these laws and lower commission rates. Instead, researchers point to rising home prices and technological advancements as key contributors to the decline.

    The paper's findings align with current reports on post-settlement compensation. Since NAR's rule changes went into effect last August, commissions have remained relatively stable, with sellers still paying buyer agents. Redfin reports that buyer agent commissions averaged 2.4% in the first quarter of this year, up slightly from the third quarter of 2024.

    The study also notes that agents are more willing to accept lower commission rates on higher-priced homes, as the increased selling price offsets the lower rate. This trend is reflected in Redfin's data, which shows that buyer agent commission rates averaged 2.17% for properties sold for $1 million or more, down from 2.22% in the third quarter of 2024.

    While the Fed's analysis suggests that NAR's settlement may not have a significant impact on commission rates, researchers caution that changes to business models and agent commissions could occur in the long run. However, predicting these outcomes is challenging due to the flexibility agents have in sharing commission information and adapting to new policies.