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ccording to CoreLogic, approximately 500,000 residential properties in the greater Tampa Bay and Sarasota metro areas are at risk of storm surge flooding due to Hurricane Milton. The estimated total reconstruction cost value (RCV) for these homes is $123 billion, assuming a Category 3 landfall. However, this number could fluctuate significantly depending on the storm's intensity.

    If Milton weakens to a Category 1 hurricane, around 225,000 properties with an RCV of $55 billion could be at risk. Conversely, if it strengthens to a Category 4 hurricane, up to 700,000 homes with a combined RCV of $174 billion could be threatened. The storm's size and intensity will play a crucial role in determining the number of properties at risk.

    Over the next 24 hours, Hurricane Milton is expected to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle, temporarily weakening but increasing its size. This growth will expose more coastline to potential flooding. In the final 12 hours before landfall, Milton will encounter hostile environmental factors that may weaken it further. Current forecasts predict a Category 3 landfall with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph.

    Even small changes in Milton's landfall location could drastically alter the financial impact of the storm. A direct hit or one just north of Tampa Bay would cause severe damage, affecting more properties. A southern landfall would reduce damage in Tampa Bay but severely impact coastal communities near Sarasota.

    These RCV estimates do not account for commercial properties at risk, which some experts estimate could add an additional $50 billion to the reconstruction cost values.