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oldman Sachs analyst Julien Blouin analyzed preliminary February data from RCA for the US real estate market. Transaction volumes rose 23% year-over-year in February, a significant increase after declining by 3% in January. This growth represents a 7% year-over-year increase on a quarter-to-date basis in Q1 FY25. The surge is largely driven by strong office and retail transaction volumes, with modest industrial and multifamily activity.

    Blouin expects further upward revisions to February's numbers, given the average 25% revision seen for October to January data. In fact, January's figures were revised upwards by 13%. At a recent conference, Newmark Group management highlighted increased commercial real estate capital markets activity due to declining treasury yields and rising broker opinions of value (BOVs). While BOVs don't directly translate to sales, they often lead to an increase in transactions.

    New York City and Silicon Valley are experiencing particularly strong activity. Blouin notes that RCA's preliminary March data and final February figures will likely be revised upwards. Historically, estimates for October, November, December, and January were revised by 37%, 39%, 13%, and 13% respectively after initial publication.