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ob growth in the nation’s largest metros is slowing, especially in tech, professional services and finance, a new study by John Burns Research & Consulting shows. The slowdown is hitting the workers who most often buy homes—high‑income earners—because mortgage approval now hinges on higher income thresholds set by today’s steep prices and rates. As these sectors lose jobs, the remaining growth comes from lower‑wage fields such as education and health care, pushing demand toward renting rather than buying.
The pattern is unusual: the overall economy is not shedding jobs, but the jobs that disappear are the ones that fuel the housing market. A median‑priced home now requires roughly $120,000 of annual income, while the average household earns about 46 % less. Thus only high‑income workers can comfortably afford to buy, and layoffs in their industries directly shrink the qualified buyer pool. Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com®, notes that a decline in high‑end employment tends to soften the for‑sale market, even when the broader economy remains stable.
Realtor.com identified 11 metros that have slipped into buyer’s markets. Each of these, except New York City, is experiencing slowed job growth. Austin, Texas, exemplifies the trend: median asking rents fell 7.2 % YoY, and listing prices dropped 5.7 %. A tech hiring slowdown combined with a construction boom has created a double shock—demand weakens while supply rises, pulling prices and rents down. Denver shows a similar, though milder, dynamic: rents down 5.9 %, listings down 1.6 %, and inventory surging beyond pre‑pandemic levels. In the Bay Area, rents are up (San Francisco +1.6 %, San Jose +2.2 %) but listing prices are falling (San Francisco –4.0 %, San Jose –0.9 %) as tech layoffs dampen buyer demand.
Charlotte, North Carolina, stands out as a “rare bright spot.” The city has maintained robust growth in high‑earning industries, leading to a 36.5 % YoY increase in active listings—the second‑largest national jump behind Washington, DC. Despite a rise in supply, median list prices climbed 2.1 % YoY, and homes sit only 7 days longer on the market, far less than the 11–13 days seen in Denver or Miami. Macke attributes Charlotte’s resilience to strong professional‑services hiring and migration patterns that keep buyer demand buoyant even as supply rises.
The shift toward lower‑paying jobs is reshaping housing demand. Rental absorption remains strong because new households are being created by jobs that pay renter wages, not buyer wages. Realtor.com’s data shows 27 consecutive months of rent declines, yet median asking rent is still up nearly 17 % compared with six years ago, and high‑demand markets like New York City continue to see year‑over‑year rent growth.
The affordability crisis has long forced the for‑sale market to rely on a narrow slice of high earners and equity‑rich buyers. As those buyers face job losses, the market is cooling—not because the economy is shrinking overall, but because the specific jobs that support homebuying are disappearing. Early warning signs appear in local layoffs at major employers in high‑income sectors; these announcements often precede federal data and directly impact the buyer pool. If high‑income cuts persist, the housing market may continue to cool, even in the absence of a broader recession.
