L
os Angeles home builders are struggling to meet the state's housing goal of 255,000 new homes by 2029. A City Council committee is set to consider a plan to rezone the city for more development, but UCLA researchers say it won't be enough. According to an analysis, the current pace of construction would only reach about 161,000 homes by 2029, leaving a shortfall of 37 percent.

    The proposed rezoning plan aims to increase building incentives for developers, but it may not make a significant difference in the number of new homes built. The UCLA study found that even with the increased incentives, housing production would still be only about one-third of what's needed to meet the state-mandated goal.

    To address the shortage, researchers suggest expanding development incentives to cover single-family-home neighborhoods, which make up 72 percent of the city's residentially zoned land. This could potentially triple the realistic capacity for building new homes compared to current rules.

    However, city officials had previously considered allowing changes in these neighborhoods but reversed course due to opposition from homeowner groups. UCLA's Shane Phillips argues that the city should reconsider this exclusion if it wants to alleviate displacement pressures on lower-income neighborhoods and reduce housing scarcity.

    The city has a long way to go to meet its housing production target of 457,000 units for 2021-2029, which is more than five times the number built in the previous eight-year period.