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ugust’s pending home sales climbed 4% from July and 3.8% year‑over‑year, beating the flat‑market expectations that many forecasters had set for the end of summer. The National Association of Realtors reported the uptick, suggesting buyers are re‑engaging, though caution remains.

    “Mortgage rates still need to drop toward 6% before we see a more pronounced recovery,” said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American. Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, added that a continued decline would lift both sales and refinancing, boosting near‑term consumer spending. Sweet expects the market to find its footing once the 30‑year fixed rate nears 6%.

    A potential federal shutdown on Oct. 1 could add volatility. While shutdowns usually lower rates, the delay of the Oct. 3 jobs report would deprive investors of key economic data, possibly stalling momentum. Even if rates fall, inventory could become the next hurdle. Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, notes that increased delisting activity reflects a market in transition, as sellers pull homes off the market when offers fall short of expectations.

    The pandemic‑era lock‑in effect is fading. Redfin data shows the share of homeowners with rates above 6% rose to 19.7% in spring— a 10‑year high— while those below 6% fell from 92.7% in Q2 2022. As of Sept. 29, 52.5% of homeowners still have rates under 4%, down from 65.1% three years earlier.

    Redfin Premier agent Mariah O’Keefe in Seattle says rates haven’t dropped enough to shift the market. “Buyers need a larger monthly‑payment difference before things change,” she said. “If rates slip below 6%, we’ll see a surge of people re‑entering the market.”