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BS has again ranked Miami as the global city most vulnerable to a real‑estate bubble in its 2025 Global Real Estate Bubble Index, assigning it a risk score of 1.73—higher than Tokyo and Zurich and the top score among 21 major cities.
The city’s placement stems from its steep price‑to‑income and price‑to‑rent ratios, plus prices that far exceed the national average. Miami also recorded the strongest inflation‑adjusted housing appreciation of any city in the study.
While price growth has moderated, the report cautions that a sharp correction is unlikely. The area’s coastal charm and tax advantages continue to lure newcomers from the U.S. West and Northeast, keeping prices well below those of New York and Los Angeles.
Miami board chairman Eddie Blanco notes that ultra‑high‑net‑worth individuals favor the city. “Miami real estate delivers more value for money, a business‑friendly government, no state income tax, a FinTech hub, year‑round sunshine, and affordable 30‑year condo units that keep appreciating,” he said. These condos serve as the entry point for first‑time buyers.
Los Angeles falls into the “elevated risk” category with a score of 1.11, ranking fourth worldwide. UBS cites its low affordability, shrinking population, and high price‑to‑rent ratio, which keep homeownership out of reach. Prices may trend downward if mortgage rates remain high.
San Francisco and New York are classified as “low risk,” scoring 0.28 and 0.26 respectively. San Francisco still grapples with affordability, even as incomes outpace home prices over the past seven years. UBS highlights that affordability remains a major hurdle, though rental growth has accelerated due to return‑to‑office mandates and AI hiring, driving demand for owner‑occupied housing.
New York’s luxury market benefits from a strong stock market, while in‑person work mandates push rents higher. Return‑to‑office normalization and steady job growth—especially in high‑income sectors—draw more renters, intensifying competition for limited listings.
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