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IAMI REALTORS® debunks the real‑estate‑bubble narrative

    Miami’s soaring home prices are the result of ordinary market forces, not an overheated bubble, says a new MIAMI REALTORS® study. The association’s economists argue that the 77 % rise in single‑family sales in Miami‑Dade County from 2019 to August 2025—outpacing the national 52 % increase and a 29 % wage rise—reflects supply‑and‑demand dynamics rather than speculative excess.

    Mortgage‑to‑GDP ratios have fallen steadily since the 2009 crash, with the current figure at 44.5 %. The only spike occurred in 2020, and the trend suggests a stable market. Job growth remains robust: non‑farm employment in the metro area grew 9.5 % between August 2019 and August 2025, compared with 5.5 % nationwide, especially in high‑pay sectors such as finance.

    Luxury sales continue to flourish. In 2025, 24 % of single‑family transactions were for homes priced at $1 million or more, up from 8 % in 2019, and 46 % of those purchases were all‑cash. The 95th‑percentile price threshold climbed to $3.5 million from $1.4 million in 2019, while the 99th‑percentile threshold rose to $10.7 million from $3.5 million.

    The market also attracts newcomers: out‑of‑state driver‑license exchanges are 22 % higher than in the first half of 2019. Looking ahead, MIAMI projects a 3.4 % rise in the median single‑family price for 2026 if mortgage rates settle at 6 %.

    “Miami‑Dade’s price gains mirror solid demand and supply fundamentals, not the speculative boom that preceded the Great Recession,” said Gay Cororaton, chief economist at MIAMI REALTORS®. “Key drivers include tighter credit access, strong employment, migration inflows, wealth migration, and a surge in luxury buyers, all of which will shape future price movements.”