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s of September 1, 2025, mortgage rates have seen a slight increase, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising to 6.62%, up from last week's 6.59%. This marks a small rise on Labor Day, highlighting continued market sensitivity to economic data and Federal Reserve policies. Despite this uptick in mortgage rates, refinance rates show some downward momentum.

    Key Takeaways:

    * The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.62%, up 3 basis points week-over-week.

    * Refinance rates for 30-year fixed mortgages fell slightly to 6.82%.

    * Market expects a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in mid-September 2025.

    * Economic data points to cooling inflation and slowing job growth.

    Mortgage rates have moved in different directions this week, indicating how sensitive they remain to economic signals. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed by 0.03% to 6.62%, while the 15-year fixed rate dipped slightly to 5.64%. Loan types and maturities show nuanced changes in borrowing conditions.

    Government-Backed Loan Rates:

    * 30-Year Fixed FHA: 6.88%

    * 30-Year Fixed VA: 6.14%

    * 15-Year Fixed FHA: 5.38%

    * 15-Year Fixed VA: 5.63%

    Mortgage Refinance Rates Today:

    * The average 30-year fixed refinance rate decreased modestly to 6.82%, down 2 basis points from last week.

    Economic Factors Influencing Mortgage Rates Today:

    * Labor Market Slowdown: Job growth has weakened noticeably, with unemployment rising modestly to 4.2%.

    * Inflation Data: Inflation is showing signs of easing, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) hovering around 2.7%.

    * Federal Reserve Actions: The Fed has kept rates steady but is widely expected to reduce rates by a quarter-point in the upcoming September meeting.

    * Bond Market Reactions: Treasury yields have fluctuated but currently stand around 4.23%.

    Looking Ahead: Mortgage Rate Forecasts

    * Most experts agree that rates will remain above 6% for the foreseeable future but may ease gradually.

    * Fannie Mae Forecast: Mortgage rates expected to close 2025 at around 6.5% and drop to approximately 6.1% by the third quarter of 2026.

    * Realtor.com Outlook: Anticipates a gradual easing to about 6.4% by the end of 2025.

    The Federal Reserve remains the key driver of mortgage rate trends, with market sentiment currently expecting a quarter-point rate cut on September 16-17. Despite this, inflation's resilience and untamed economic forces mean rates likely won't drop below 6% soon, causing continued upward pressure on mortgage borrowing costs.