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ew York City's Real Estate Market Stalls Amid Tariff Uncertainty
A perfect storm of uncertainty is brewing in New York City's real estate market, as the Trump administration's tariffs have sent shockwaves through the industry. Home builders, suppliers, and buyers are all feeling the pinch, with many projects put on hold or cancelled altogether.
For Holly Mumford, an architect and founder of Hereabout, a company that sells predesigned home plans, the past week has been a wake-up call. Her usual stream of new client inquiries has dried up, and her suppliers have begun to pull back. "I'm most worried about people who are mid-construction," she says. "It's going to get messy."
The real estate industry had been showing signs of life in 2025, with contract signings up significantly in New York City. But the tariffs have put a damper on that momentum. "We've seen sales rising at four times the rate of inventory," says Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel. "But now it feels like everyone is holding off."
Bess Freedman, CEO of Brown Harris Stevens, agrees. "Consumer confidence is in the toilet," she says. "It's more strain on an already strained housing market." Even falling interest rates may not be enough to offset the cost increases caused by the tariffs.
While some experts believe that New York City's wealth and stability will insulate it from the worst of the economic downturn, others are less optimistic. Jacob Wood, an associate broker at Coldwell Banker Warburg, says that the market reaction in NYC is likely to be a decline in activity rather than a drop in pricing.
As the tariffs continue to cause uncertainty, many in the industry are bracing for impact. Anthony Luna, CEO of Coastline Equity, warns that material price increases could reach 50 percent if Trump follows through on his threat of additional tariffs on China. "We'll see supply-chain holdups worse than during COVID," he says.
The future of new construction in NYC looks grim, with the tariffs likely to raise costs and the administration's immigration policies shrinking the industry's workforce. But some developers remain hopeful that things will get worked out. As one developer wrote in an email, "We're still processing the tariff news and are hopeful things will get worked out."
