R
eal‑estate experts in Florida’s most exclusive zip codes say the “Mamdani effect” is still largely anecdotal.
Zohran Mamdani’s landslide win as New York City mayor—promising to cut living costs—may paradoxically make the city more expensive for the ultra‑wealthy. Agents in Greenwich, Palm Beach, and the Hamptons report that the effect is already creeping into prices or prompting buyers to act, as residents anticipate another migration wave.
In 2025, Miami agent Dina Goldentayer, the top earner at Douglas Elliman with over $3 billion in sales since 2021, noted that while median home prices fell 4 % year‑over‑year, luxury homes rose 8.4 %. “Every year our price points climb,” she said, adding that a $30 million listing is now the new $20 million. Though she has not seen New York‑to‑Miami moves directly tied to Mamdani, many Miami sellers are raising prices in anticipation of an influx of New Yorkers. She cautions buyers to wait for policy rollout before committing.
Mamdani’s platform includes higher taxes for incomes above $1 million and criticism of the NYPD, sparking fears among the city’s richest that their wealth will be targeted and safety will decline. Buyers worry that New Yorkers will push prices up, and Goldentayer has heard clients say the “Mamdani effect” is already baked into listings.
Nancy Batchelor, a top Miami agent, reports that a handful of buyers mention the election, but it is rarely the sole reason for a move. “People who were on the fence are now exploring options with more urgency,” she says. Many are buying second homes in Miami temporarily, waiting to see how New York changes before relocating families.
In Palm Beach, a pandemic‑era trend is turning into a full lifestyle shift. Samantha Curry, a leading agent there, notes that ex‑New Yorkers cite potential tax hikes and safety concerns as reasons for their search. She expects another wave of northern buyers if Mamdani’s policies materialize.
Greenwich, Connecticut, has seen a post‑primary surge in ultra‑luxury sales. Average prices jumped from $14.9 million pre‑nomination to $19.7 million after Mamdani’s win, according to Compass agent Mark Pruner. Three large contracts—ranging from $14 million to $28 million—have entered the market since the election. While some clients attribute their move to Mamdani, evidence remains anecdotal. Pruner projects over 50 sales above $10 million this year, up from 19 in 2007, driven partly by investors pulling unrealized stock gains into real estate.
Inventory in Greenwich is down 82 % from pre‑COVID levels, tightening supply and pushing prices higher even before Mamdani’s policies take effect. Despite chatter of a wealthy exodus, luxury sales in New York surged post‑election: 41 contracts above $4 million signed in the election week, the most in a single week since May.
Miami’s Batchelor notes that many ultra‑wealthy are not choosing between New York and Miami but are maintaining both. They buy Florida homes to sidestep taxes while keeping their New York properties. As Pruner points out, those who can afford a $10 million house can typically afford multiple properties, allowing them to diversify across markets.
