L
ast month, pending home sales climbed 3.3% from October and 2.6% from the same period in 2024, with the South recording the largest year‑over‑year increase of 3.3%. The uptick in contract signings suggests 2025 might finish on a stronger note after a sluggish year. According to the National Association of Realtors, the nationwide rise in pending sales is accompanied by a regional pattern: buyers are returning where mortgage rates have fallen, affordability has improved, and inventory has risen. Senior economist Sam Williamson of First American notes that the payment‑to‑paycheck equation is becoming more manageable in areas experiencing the most price cooling.

    Despite the November surge, analysts predict that total existing‑home sales will remain close to last year’s 4.06 million, the lowest in three decades. The late‑season rise occurs during the market’s slowest period, so its effect on overall numbers will be modest. Realtor.com’s Hannah Jones describes the market as “low gear,” with both buyer and seller activity subdued.

    Looking ahead to 2026, the November contract gains could provide a modest boost, but experts caution against expecting a rapid turnaround. Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant says the market will transition rather than rebound, with stakeholders still seeking a stronger 2026.

    Affordability remains a challenge. First American’s index indicated October’s affordability was the best since mid‑2022, yet it remains over 64 % below the pre‑pandemic five‑year average. With mortgage rates projected to hover near current levels into early 2026 and wages rising, supply will be decisive for affordability, according to First American chief economist Mark Fleming. He explains that price trends will hinge on whether demand outpaces new listings and construction. If demand grows faster, supply could tighten, pushing prices up; if supply keeps pace or exceeds sales, a cooler price environment may persist.