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s the Sonoma County real estate market continues to navigate its complex landscape, a tantalizing question arises: could a rightsized government and tariffs on global trading partners be the secret ingredient that unlocks the market's true potential? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain - President Trump's actions will put pressure on interest rates to decrease, offsetting fears of economic downturns that threaten our housing markets.
Let's dive into the numbers. According to BARIES MLS, Sonoma County boasted 780 single-family homes for sale at the beginning of April, a staggering 58% increase from last year. Sellers contributed 295 new listings, a 34% drop from 2024 and an all-time low. Meanwhile, buyers seized control of 400 new deals, a 36% spike from the previous year. Completed sales reached 253, a 14% decline from last year's pace.
The market's momentum can be measured by the months' supply of inventory (MSI). A balanced market typically falls between 4.0 and 6.0, with lower numbers favoring sellers and higher ones benefiting buyers. Sonoma County's MSI steadied at 3.1 in March, indicating a seller's market that may soon shift towards balance.
Looking ahead, we anticipate a bounce upward in available listings and closed transactions in 2025. The Sonoma Valley submarket, encompassing Kenwood and Glen Ellen properties, reported 120 homes for sale as March concluded - a 46% increase from last year. New listings dwindled to just 23, a 52% drop from 2024, while buyers secured accepted contracts on 37 more properties.
Healdsburg witnessed a paltry 16 new listings in March, a 58% decline from the previous year. Buyers snapped up 24 homes in new deals, leaving the submarket with 69 available dwellings - a 30% increase from last year's levels. MSI stood at 4.6, denoting a balanced market.
Sebastopol wrapped up the period with 31 available homes and 12 new listings. Home shoppers secured 16 more contracts while sellers completed 9 sales, pushing MSI to 3.4 - still a seller's market.
To the south, Petaluma remains hot, with buyer activity allowing sellers to maintain control. Only 30 new listings were released in March, leaving 62 homes for buyers to choose from in April. Home seekers latched onto 40 new deals while sellers closed out 33 more purchases, pressuring MSI to 1.9 - a market where sellers set the terms.
As we navigate these choppy waters, remember that change often gets messy before reaching its destination. Expect the unexpected and stay tuned for further updates on our ever-changing marketplace.
