realestate

Redfin's Revenue Takes a Dip, But US Housing Market Shows Signs of Recovery

Mortgage rate drop sparks rebound in homebuying demand, reports say.

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edfin's Homebuyer Demand Index has seen a significant 9% month-over-month increase, according to its latest report, indicating a bounce back in homebuying demand following the Fed's interest-rate cut. However, sales have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels and remain uncertain. Redfin's revenue and earnings took a hit as rising interest rates led to a decline in the housing market.

    The company's most recent quarterly results exceeded expectations, but it still has a long way to go to recover profitably. The stock has surged over 73% in the past 90 days due to the shift in rate environment. Investors interested in the housing market may want to keep an eye on Redfin for further signs of positive results before making any moves.

    Redfin's latest report shows that U.S. home turnover rates have decreased significantly, reaching a decade-low of 25 homes sold per 1,000, down 37.5% from the 2021 pandemic buying period and 31% less than the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Contributing factors include elevated mortgage rates, increasing home prices, and a historically low supply of listed homes.

    Redfin's Q2 2024 financial results showed revenue of $295.20 million, a 7% year-over-year increase that beat analysts' expectations. Gross profit rose by 9%, but real estate services gross profit declined by 4%. The company reported a net loss of $27.9 million and Adjusted EBITDA improved significantly from last year.

    Redfin's management has provided guidance for Q3 2024, expecting revenue to range between $273 million and $285 million and a total net loss between $30 million and $22 million. The stock trades in the upper half of its 52-week price range and shows positive price momentum. Analysts have taken a wait-and-see approach, with an average price target of $8.14 representing a potential decline of -21.12% from current levels.

    Redfin is showing signs of recovery amidst a turbulent housing market, driven by the Fed's recent cuts in interest rates. Although its performance is still below pre-pandemic levels, it has experienced a noteworthy surge in its stock. However, U.S. home turnover rates are at a decade-low and economic and political uncertainties loom. A cautious approach is recommended given the firm's expected further net loss in Q3 2024.

Redfin executive in conference room with US housing market recovery charts behind.