S
an Francisco homebuyers are holding back this fall, waiting for lower interest rates, a return to office work, and election results before making a move. While this year's fall market is an improvement over last year's doldrums, anxiety and limited inventory have capped its potential. According to Compass data, September saw slightly more listings go into contract than the previous year, but numbers remain below 2021's peak.

    Compass agent Nina Hatvany attributes the return of some buyers from remote-work destinations like Mount Shasta or Palm Desert to a push for in-office work and a desire to experience city life again. However, many are still hesitant to commit long-term, opting instead to rent. "People are saying, 'Let's make sure the turnaround has happened,'" Hatvany said.

    Macroeconomic factors, such as interest rates and inflation, have a greater impact on the market than election uncertainty, according to Compass Chief Market Analyst Patrick Carlisle. While it's possible that anxiety is higher this year due to the election, hard data won't be available until December.

    Buyers are also being cautious due to slim inventory, with sellers holding out for better market conditions or lower interest rates. New listings in San Francisco were lower than any September in the last four years, according to Compass. Compass agent Ruth Krishnan notes that buyers face a "paradox of choice," where they may see something they like but worry about finding something better later.

    The election and changes to buyer agent commissions are also contributing to buyer uncertainty. For now, most agents are writing commissions into offers, but this may change in the future. Some buyers are deciding to wait until spring, when competition is expected to pick up, while others are holding back due to anxiety over the market's direction.

    Compass agent Neal Ward agrees that election years don't typically have a significant impact on the market, citing macroeconomic trends as the primary drivers of real estate activity. With interest rates and the stock market humming along, buyers are more interested in these factors than election results.