T
he Sarasota and Manatee real estate markets showed a relatively balanced trend in March, with steady single-family home sales and a strong presence of cash buyers. However, the stability may be short-lived due to international economic headwinds caused by President Trump's tariff policies. The tariffs have created uncertainty globally, with the International Monetary Fund projecting slower growth in the US and worldwide.

    The 10-year Treasury yield has seen significant fluctuations, dropping as low as 3.9% before spiking to 4.6% in early April. This benchmark for economic health can impact home loan pricing, with mortgage interest rates adjusting accordingly. The average 30-year mortgage rate is currently around 6.81%, down from 6.83% the previous week but still near its highest level in two months.

    Prior to the latest tariffs, US single-family home sales were up 7.4% from February and 6% from March 2023. Sarasota and Manatee counties saw similar increases, with single-family home sales rising 38.7% and 33.6%, respectively. However, year-over-year changes in sales activity and median sale prices diverged between the two counties.

    Robert Goldman, a local Realtor, believes that investors' fears of inflation from Trump's tariff maneuvers are driving the yield's fluctuations. He advises buyers and sellers to consult data before making decisions, as the market remains balanced despite slowing regional activity. Goldman is optimistic that an easing of tariffs would restore confidence in the local and national markets.

    The Sarasota region continues to experience population growth, which may help mitigate the impact of high mortgage rates on home sales. However, Goldman cautions against making emotional decisions based on feelings rather than data.