D
onald Trump's disdain for the "expert class" has been a recurring theme throughout his presidency and three runs for the White House. This animosity was particularly pronounced when it came to the U.S. foreign-policy establishment, comprising analysts, officials, journalists, and academics. In 2017, instead of tapping a high-profile diplomat or official to manage Middle East policy, Trump appointed Jared Kushner, his son-in-law.

    Kushner's tenure saw some success, including negotiating the Abraham Accords. However, like every peace processor before him, he failed to secure a deal between Israelis and Palestinians. For his second term, Trump has turned to Steve Witkoff, another non-expert outsider, to settle the Israel-Hamas war and push for an end to the devastating conflict.

    Witkoff's qualifications are undeniable: he's a successful real estate executive with Trump's ear as their golf partner and friend. His plain-spoken Long Island demeanor may be exactly what's needed to deal with the Israelis, Palestinians, Qataris, Egyptians, and others who have mastered the art of diplomatic doublespeak.

    But here lies the problem: the Israel-Palestine conflict is not a real estate deal, no matter how hard Witkoff tries to make it sound that way. The U.S. Middle East envoy views this complex issue as something akin to resolving a property dispute, rather than a deeply ingrained historical and cultural phenomenon.

    Witkoff's summary of Trump's plan for Gaza on Fox News' Sean Hannity exemplifies this real estate mentality: "A better life is not necessarily tied to the physical space you are in." These words drained away the conflict's historical complexity, reducing it to trading up for a better neighborhood. This approach may seem similar to Kushner's, but Witkoff's self-designation as a "disruptor" belies his conventional peace processor methods.

    The real estate mentality would be fine if Gaza and the Israel-Palestine conflict were simply about borders or sharing territory. However, this issue is far more complex, involving deeply held ideas about nationalism, identity, national memory, and religion that have produced opposing narratives.

    Consider the religious Zionist movement and Hamas, currently the most dynamic forces within Israeli and Palestinian societies. They share a sacralized worldview that has consecrated the land between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea as either Jewish patrimony or Islamic patrimony. Dividing it would be sacrilege. Witkoff may pressure Netanyahu and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani into a cease-fire, but it's hard to see how he can get the one-staters of Israel's right and Hamas to accept any deal.

    This is not just about radicals undermining moderates; even if you isolate and weaken the religious Zionist movement and Hamas, the Israeli and Palestinian narratives lead to stalemate. For Palestinians, Israelis are living on land stolen from its rightful owners; for Israelis, they represent justice for thousands of years of exile and persecution. These mutually exclusive understandings have only deepened since October 2023.

    Witkoff confronts a problem that has only grown more intractable: a struggle over the "real history" of the conflict, with each side demanding moral absolutism that delegitimizes the other's claims. It remains unclear whether Witkoff is prepared for this education in the complexities of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

    Witkoff has shown success strong-arming Israelis, Qataris, and Hamas into a cease-fire, but he continues to speak about advancing it without acknowledging the confrontation with Israel's right that lies ahead. He seems to take the Qataris' constructive role at face value, even calling their efforts "doing God's work." Witkoff may be no pushover, but it appears he believes he can move Israelis and Palestinians to a better place without accounting for what divides them.

    Perhaps Witkoff's fresh set of eyes, Trump's ear, and plain-spoken style will win him goodwill or grudging acceptance from the players in this never-ending tragedy. He may have good ideas no one else has thought of, but ultimately, he'll run into the same buzz saw as Kushner, Martin Indyk, George Mitchell, and Dennis Ross: an existential conflict that remains zero-sum for Israelis and Palestinians.

    Trump and Witkoff should look elsewhere for a Nobel Peace Prize.