T
he US housing market has seen a surge in new inventory, bringing the number of vacant homes waiting for buyers to near levels last seen during the 2008 bubble, according to real estate analyst Nick Gerli. Gerli, CEO of Reventure App, noted that for-sale speculative homes have reached their second-highest level ever, with builders contributing to an influx of supply.

    This trend is a significant shift from the housing shortage experienced between 2012 and 2022, which inflated prices and made homeownership less accessible to many Americans. However, the current surge in inventory may not be entirely positive if it's not accompanied by a rise in demand from buyers. With high mortgage rates and still-rising home prices, sales remain relatively low despite pent-up demand.

    The number of spec homes on the market has reached 124,000 this year, the highest level in at least a decade, although lower than the 199,000 seen during the 2008 bubble. Many new homes for sale are unsold due to their high prices, which remain out of reach for many potential buyers.

    The median home price nationwide was $430,010 in November, up 5.4% from last year, while the number of homes for sale increased by 10.3%. However, the number of homes sold rose by only 4.4%. Gerli attributes this situation to builders in the South and parts of the Mountain West permitting many homes during the pandemic boom and continuing to do so despite cooling buyer demand.

    Texas, Florida, Arizona, Tennessee, and Georgia are the most impacted states, with active listings on the re-sale market spiking back to pre-pandemic levels. Gerli expects prices to drop in these regions, particularly in suburban and rural areas where builders are most active. In contrast, the housing shortage persists in the Northeast and Midwest, where builders have largely ignored these markets.

    Gerli warns that even more spec inventory may hit the market in 2025, as there are currently 266,000 homes under construction, the second-highest level for any previous housing cycle. This trend has led some analysts to warn of a potential housing crash similar to the one in 2008, citing rising insurance premiums and high home prices as contributing factors.