R
edfin’s latest MLS and public‑record analysis shows U.S. home sales have hit a 30‑year low, with only 28 of every 1,000 homes changing hands in the first nine months of 2024. New York City tops the list with just 10.3 sales per 1,000 homes, followed by Los Angeles and San Francisco, each below 15. The slump reflects buyers’ affordability worries, tariff concerns, and a weak job market, while sellers cling to historic low‑rate mortgages. With the 30‑year fixed rate around 6.17% last week and over 70 % of borrowers holding rates below 5%, many homeowners avoid selling to escape higher financing costs. Both sides’ hesitation has pushed transactions to historic lows. Despite the Fed’s brief rate‑cut cycle in September, Redfin projects mortgage rates staying near 7 % through 2025, and Zillow forecasts 6‑7 % until the end of next year.