M
ortgage rates slipped a touch this week, with the 30‑year fixed‑rate average falling to 6.33 % APR—just two basis points lower than the previous week. A basis point equals one‑hundredth of a percent. The drop came amid a backdrop of uncertainty triggered by the federal government’s shutdown that began on Wednesday. While the shutdown does not directly set mortgage rates, it removes key economic data that lenders and the Federal Reserve rely on to gauge the economy and decide on policy.

    The shutdown has halted the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ operations, meaning the highly anticipated jobs report scheduled for Friday will be delayed. The data that were already collected before the shutdown will still be released, but no new information will be gathered until the government reopens. Similarly, the Consumer Price Index for September, due on October 15, could be delayed if the shutdown persists, complicating the Fed’s assessment of inflation.

    The Fed, which remains operational because it is funded by interest on its holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage‑backed assets, still depends heavily on government statistics. Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on September 23 that “near‑term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside,” highlighting the delicate balance between preventing runaway inflation and preserving job growth. With the next policy meeting set for October 28, missing data will make the Fed’s decision‑making more challenging.

    For homebuyers, the lack of clear rate forecasts is a double‑edged sword. Fall is traditionally a quieter season for real estate, yet it can also offer attractive pricing. The National Association of Realtors reported a 4 % rise in pending home sales in August, after a sluggish year‑long pace. September’s mortgage rates hit a low before the Fed’s mid‑September rate cut, and although rates have rebounded slightly, 30‑year fixed‑rate averages remain near the year’s lowest levels.

    Uncertainty may prompt some buyers to pause, and that’s understandable—homeownership is a major commitment. However, for those confident in their financial footing, October could present a favorable window to lock in a rate before potential future hikes. The key will be monitoring how the shutdown resolves and how the Fed responds to the evolving data landscape.