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Market analysis··3 min read

Prologis Forecasts More Development and Acquisitions Amid Industrial Sector Recovery

Prologis, the world's largest warehouse owner, expects up to US$5.75 billion in development projects by the end of 2026 and predicts a revitalisation of the industrial sector, but warns of the impact of higher interest rates.

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Prologis Forecasts More Development and Acquisitions Amid Industrial Sector Recovery. Illustrative image generated using artificial intelligence (AI). The image does not depict a real property, person or event and is not a documentary photograph. Labelled in accordance with Article 50(4) of the EU AI Act.

Prologis, the world's largest owner of warehouse properties, anticipates an increase in development projects and acquisitions. Management informed investors that they expect an uptick in construction starts and property acquisitions after the third quarter of 2026, though they noted that higher interest rates could slow transaction activity.

In the third quarter, the group signed leases totalling 60 million square feet. CEO Dan Letter announced during the company's earnings call that the average occupancy rate had risen to 95.1 per cent, compared to 94.8 per cent in the same period last year. This indicates stable demand in the logistics real estate sector.

Financial Metrics and Outlook

The San Francisco-based Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) generated revenues of US$2.39 billion in the third quarter. This represents a slight decrease from US$2.43 billion in the second quarter, but an increase from US$2.21 billion in the prior-year period. Core Funds from Operations (FFO) amounted to US$1.55 billion or US$1.60 per diluted share. For comparison, this was US$1.56 billion in the second quarter and US$1.43 billion in the third quarter of the previous year.

Tim Arndt, Prologis' Chief Financial Officer, reported that the company acquired approximately US$702 million worth of properties in the third quarter. In the second quarter, acquisitions totalled US$1.12 billion, while in the third quarter of 2025, only US$48 million was invested. Net earnings attributable to common stockholders reached US$816 million, a decrease from US$1.06 billion in the second quarter, but exceeding US$763 million in the prior-year period.

Increased Investment in Development and Acquisitions

Prologis has raised its outlook for capital investments. The forecast for acquisitions in 2026 has been increased from the previous US$1.5 billion to US$2 billion, to US$2.1 billion to US$2.3 billion. On the development side, the REIT also expects a particularly active year-end. Prologis now anticipates concluding the year with new development projects valued between US$5 billion and US$5.75 billion, an increase from the previous expectation of US$4.5 billion to US$5.5 billion.

During the quarter, development projects worth approximately US$1 billion were started, bringing cumulative year-to-date starts to nearly US$5 billion. Arndt attributed this increase to a

Die Unternehmensvertreter wiesen auch darauf hin, dass höhere Bau- und Finanzierungskosten die Schwelle für spekulative Entwicklungen erhöhen. Laut Letter müssen die erforderlichen Mieten zur Rechtfertigung neuer Projekte nun 27 Prozent über den Marktmieten liegen. Dies dürfte neue Bauprojekte verlangsamen und das langfristige Mietwachstum stützen. Die Kriterien für die Kapitalallokation wurden angesichts der Zinsentwicklung noch strenger gefasst.

Managing Director Chris Caton stellte fest, dass sich Südkalifornien, der größte Industriemarkt der Nation, weiterhin erholt. Caton äußerte sich zuversichtlich, dass sich eine zyklische Erholung abzeichnet, welche das Portfolio des Unternehmens für die kommenden Jahre überdurchschnittlich positioniert.

  • —Prologis verstärkt sein Engagement in der Daten- und Strominfrastruktur.
  • —Transaktionen für Rechenzentren und Stromversorgung machten im dritten Quartal 10 Prozent der Neuanmietungen und 17 Prozent in den USA aus.
  • —Es wird geschätzt, dass dieses Segment bis 2030 eine zusätzliche Industrienachfrage von über 150 Millionen Quadratfuß generieren könnte.
  • —Aushandlungen in diesem Bereich sind oft langwierig, da es sich um milliardenschwere Entscheidungen von Hyperscalern handelt.

fourth quarter for build-to-suit logistics projects. Dan Letter added that the pipeline for build-to-suit projects is 20 to 25 per cent larger than last year. Prologis expects these projects to account for 55 to 65 per cent of the construction starts this year.

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