The momentum of real retail spending across the EMEA region is developing unevenly. According to a forecast by Oxford Economics, spending in Germany is expected to rise by just 0.6 per cent in 2026, compared to a projected growth of 1.8 per cent across the EMEA region as a whole. In France and the United Kingdom, growth of between 2.4 and 2.6 per cent is anticipated. Nevertheless, the German market maintains its standing as a core institutional location: in terms of retail real estate transaction volume between July 2025 and June 2026, Germany continues to rank second behind the United Kingdom and ahead of Italy. This is confirmed by the latest report, EMEA Retail Snapshot November 2026, from real estate advisory firm Colliers.
The European market environment remains characterised by ongoing inflationary pressure and muted consumer sentiment. In Germany, investor interest is focused specifically on food-anchored properties, supermarkets and retail parks with secure cash flows. A prominent example of this focus is the transaction by CEV Handelsimmobilien, which acquired a portfolio of 37 food retail stores from Trei Real Estate in March 2026 for around EUR 200 million. In the United Kingdom, high-volume shopping centre deals dominated activity, while Italy recorded significant volumes with the sale of a majority stake in the Via Monte Napoleone 8 property in Milan for around EUR 1.1 billion.
Polarisation in the occupational market and sustained demand for convenience retail
According to Larissa Towey, Senior Analyst at Colliers EMEA Research, the subdued consumer climate is intensifying market polarisation. Leading retail operators are increasingly focusing their expansion on strategically important flagship locations in major European cities such as London, Paris or Milan, rather than expanding regional store networks. In secondary locations, leasing activity remains correspondingly weak. Nicole Römer, Head of Retail at Colliers Germany, emphasises that investors are primarily focused on the sustainability of rental income, tenant covenant strength and operating concepts that prove resilient even under changing conditions.
In the occupational markets, prime rents remained stable across most European submarkets in the first half of 2026. For the next twelve months, Colliers forecasts unchanged prime rental levels on high-street shopping pitches in 89 per cent of the surveyed EMEA markets. For luxury streets and shopping centres, this share stands at 83 per cent each. By contrast, selected locations such as Birmingham, Copenhagen and Brussels recorded rental growth.
Shopping centres regain institutional market share
Following the price adjustments of recent years, shopping centres are once again moving into the focus of investors, as adjusted valuations provide scope for repositioning and active asset management. In the first half of 2026, shopping centres, outlet centres and retail parks accounted for approximately 77 per cent of total retail investment volume in the EMEA region. This figure is noticeably above the average of 66 per cent recorded between 2021 and 2025.
- —Average net initial yield of European shopping centres: 6.31 per cent (previous year: 6.28 per cent)
- —Prime yield for European high-street retail properties: 4.16 per cent
- —Share of large-scale retail formats in EMEA investment volume: 77 per cent in the first half of 2026
- —Expected stability of prime rents on high-street shopping pitches: 89 per cent of surveyed markets
For the coming months, Colliers expects institutional market participants to maintain a selective investment approach, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and divergent consumer spending forecasts across Europe.
