On the occasion of the EXPO REAL trade fair in Munich, Berlin Hyp has presented its third Trend Barometer for 2026. More than 600 real estate professionals took part in the survey. The results reflect a nuanced sentiment for the coming twelve months: 35 per cent of respondents consider future market development to be open and are adopting a wait-and-see approach, while 32 per cent expect a rather weak trajectory. In contrast, 25 per cent anticipate an overall positive development and four per cent foresee a clear recovery. A further four per cent expect a noticeable deterioration.
According to market participants, the findings point less to a broad-based upswing and more towards a selective market. Investment opportunities are primarily concentrated on assets whose location, type of use, structural quality and income stability remain compelling even amidst ongoing uncertainties surrounding financing and price trends. In a European comparison, Germany maintains a clear profile: 26 per cent of respondents see the location's greatest strength in low-risk, long-term core investments.
Around 25 per cent consider the German commercial real estate market to be fundamentally strong, yet attribute less dynamism to it than to other European countries. A further 21 per cent currently identify more attractive opportunities outside Germany. Nine per cent still rank the Federal Republic among the leading European markets, while three per cent note declining competitiveness.
Sascha Klaus, Member of the Board of Managing Directors of LBBW and CEO of Berlin Hyp, contextualised the results, stating that industry sentiment was characterised neither by renewed momentum nor by resignation. Investors are now analysing locations and project viability much more rigorously. In addition, real estate and infrastructure are converging more closely, as reliable energy and digital utilities can be just as decisive for a location's long-term viability as the structural quality of the building itself.
Financing potential and regulatory frameworks
Under the EXPO REAL guiding theme 'InfrastructureNow', the barometer examined investable infrastructure as an expanded financing field for the first time. Looking ahead over the next three years, experts identified particularly high potential in digital and energy projects:
- —27 per cent of responses related to data centres, fibre optics and other digital infrastructure projects.
- —22 per cent saw significant potential in the field of renewable energies and energy storage.
- —18 per cent cited electricity grids, heating and hydrogen networks, followed by twelve per cent for charging infrastructure and lower-emission mobility.
- —Transport infrastructure accounted for ten per cent, social infrastructure for seven per cent, and the circular economy and wastewater management for four per cent.
However, tangible hurdles emerge regarding the feasibility of financing such projects. Regulatory and political frameworks were identified as the most significant influencing factor, accounting for 21 per cent of responses. Construction, completion and cost risks followed with 17 per cent, while the attractiveness and predictability of cash flows accounted for 16 per cent. Creditworthiness of partners was deemed decisive by 13 per cent, with equity requirements and capital market conditions each reaching ten per cent. Public guarantees accounted for seven per cent, while sustainability criteria under the EU Taxonomy and planning approval risks concluded the list at three per cent each.
