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Market analysis··5 min read

New York's rent freeze was just an aftershock. The 2019 law was the real earthquake.

The 2019 tenant protection law harmed landlords of rent-stabilised properties in a way that New York's recent rent freeze merely exacerbated.

AI-generatedNew York's rent freeze was just an aftershock. The 2019 law was the real earthquake – AI-generated illustrative image
New York's rent freeze was just an aftershock. The 2019 law was the real earthquake.. Illustrative image generated using artificial intelligence (AI). The image does not depict a real property, person or event and is not a documentary photograph. Labelled in accordance with Article 50(4) of the EU AI Act.

Jose Tur owns two rent-stabilised multi-family buildings in Manhattan's Washington Heights with a total of 45 residential units. The properties have been in his family's possession for over 30 years, and the mortgages are fully paid off. However, Tur reports to Commercial Observer that, while he does not want to give an exact number, 'more than two or three' units have been vacant for an average of over two years.

This is because, according to Tur's estimates, it would cost between $30,000 and $60,000 per unit to restore them to a habitable condition. He cannot justify this amount given the stabilised rental income in the current environment. Tur, who has previously testified before the New York City Rent Guidelines Board (RGB) about these financial challenges, explained that some units require more work than others. For those needing substantial work – and he means the basic measures to bring them up to a habitable standard – one is looking at at least $30,000.

Often the plumbing is very old because a tenant has lived there for 10 to 15 years, and then the electrics need to be renewed and lead abatement carried out, which significantly increases the cost of the work. Tur clarified that the $30,000 estimate does not yet account for cosmetic fixes like cabinets, tiles and the like, meaning the total for a studio apartment is often closer to $60,000. Given this, the fate of his currently vacant flats is uncertain. With no financial relief in sight, it is likely that the units will remain uninhabited for the foreseeable future, vanishing from New York's available housing stock – and from Tur's income-generating properties – as if they had never existed.

The RGB approved a freeze on rent increases for one- and two-year leases for the city's rent-stabilised flats in June, effective for lease commencements from 1 October. Since then, owners of these properties have repeatedly pointed out that the lack of approval for an increase – at a time when costs from maintenance to insurance are soaring – leaves them no choice but to leave more and more units vacant. This particularly affects flats that require extensive modernisation after long-term, rent-stabilised tenants move out, as their lengthy tenancies often leave significant renovation needs.

There are no reliable indicators of how many rent-stabilised units in New York City have been specifically taken off the market due to these costs. In June, Gothamist reported that, according to a letter from New York State’s Division of Homes and Community Renewal to the RGB, 57,421 rent-stabilised units were vacant on 1 April 2025, an increase of approximately 8,000 compared to the previous year. Since then, the figure of 57,000 has become the most cited metric for vacant flats. However, the news platform clarified that this number might be too high. It includes empty units in new buildings that have not yet been rented, as well as units vacant due to normal tenant turnover. Units might also be held back if a building is being prepared for a sale.

A report from the Office of the New York City Comptroller in March 2024 painted a somewhat different picture. Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 New York City Housing and Vacancy Survey (NYCHVS), the Comptroller’s office found that “the number of rent-stabilised units that are vacant and unrentable, both generally and specifically due to landlords’ inability to make repairs, decreased significantly from 2021 to 2023.” (The NYCHVS is conducted every three years, most recently in 2023.) The report further stated that the number of particularly affordable rent-stabilised units that were vacant at the time due to landlords’ inability to make repairs was “likely fewer than 2,000 that rent for $1,500 or less, which accounts for less than 0.5 per cent of the city’s stabilised housing stock.” Overall, the NYCHVS found that “in 2023, 26,310 units that were vacant but unavailable were rent-stabilised.”

Regardless of the exact number of vacant units, the overall rent stabilisation situation in the city appears to be slightly improving. According to an RGB report from 2026, New York City saw a net gain of approximately 21,281 rent-stabilised units in 2025, as 32,745 new rent-stabilised units attributed to buildings developed under the 421-a and 485-x tax incentive programmes helped offset the at least 11,464 units that fell out of rent stabilisation. This is the highest number of additions to the city's rent-stabilised stock since the RGB began tracking these figures in 2003. While this is good news for New York's tenants overall, it offers little comfort to owners forced to remove units from the market due to increased costs and reduced rental income.

Conversations with owners and other stakeholders indicate that while the recent rent freeze is the latest factor in owners' ongoing struggle to keep rent-stabilised units on the market, it is not the main reason. The current affordability problems for owners of rent-stabilised properties began en masse after the passage of New York State’s Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act of 2019 (HSTPA), which, among other things, eliminated a landlord's ability to raise rents to or near market levels after a tenant moved out. This, more than any other factor, including increased costs or the rent freeze, is most commonly cited as the reason why owners of rent-stabilised properties are struggling to keep their buildings rentable without falling deeper into the red. Tur noted that the situation truly worsened after the HSTPA in 2019, and it essentially froze his ability to work and made it significantly more difficult.

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