C
hina's residential real estate sector is poised for a gradual rebound, albeit with lingering structural constraints. The pace of new construction projects will pick up in 2025, but authorities are likely to maintain their grip on speculative demand.

    A silver lining emerges as existing housing prices in top-tier cities continue to stabilize and even rise through March 2025. Despite the high-profile collapse of Vanke, a state-backed property giant, investor confidence is expected to recover incrementally.

    Government stimulus measures introduced last autumn have helped clear inventory backlogs and revive stalled projects. Moreover, fiscal support for state-owned enterprises to purchase existing housing stock and convert it into affordable units will remain a key driver over the medium term. This approach echoes Singapore's model of promoting housing affordability through targeted policies.

    As part of its urbanization drive, the State Council has unveiled a five-year plan to boost the proportion of urban residents from 67% to 70%. Governments are likely to sustain this momentum in the long term, with a focus on upgrading urban infrastructure and providing affordable housing options.