A
s the North Bay market continues to evolve, buyers are reactivating their home-buying process and will likely assess current and new listings to determine whether to purchase now. This trend will be reflected in the absorption rate, a key market indicator that measures the total number of homes sold against available inventory.
In February, Marin County saw a surge in sales, with 115 homes absorbed by buyers - a 20% increase from last year. Sellers also closed deals on 102 dwellings, a 19% jump from the previous year. Meanwhile, Sonoma County reported 249 single-family home purchases, a 2% rise from last year, while property owners listed 235 new offerings, a 28% decline from the same period in 2024.
The absorption rate is calculated by dividing homes sold by available inventory at the end of each month. A high absorption rate (20% and above) indicates a shrinking supply, increasing the likelihood of faster sales and higher prices. Conversely, an absorption rate below 15% suggests a buyer's market with slower sales and lower prices.
Sonoma County's February data showed buyers completing purchases on 224 dwellings, a 12% increase from last year. The county's available inventory rose to 674 homes, a welcome 60% bounce above the previous low. This has led to an elevated absorption rate of 33%, indicating potential price increases unless new inventory is introduced.
Marin County's weak new delivery numbers will continue to challenge buyers and create a competitive environment for both new and existing buyers. The county's absorption rate steadied at 43%, indicative of its ongoing sellers' market since 2011.
Napa County, on the other hand, remains in balance, with an absorption rate of 16% in February. Buyers placed 61 new deals into escrow, a 9% increase from last year, while closed transactions totaled 50, a 6% decline from the previous year.
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