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looming federal shutdown on Oct. 1 could deepen the economic unease that has already slowed the housing market, even though it would not halt home sales outright. Programs tied to real estate—Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD and the VA—would keep running, albeit at reduced capacity, and past shutdowns show that most transactions go through. Still, 25 % of Realtors noted some impact on clients, mainly because buyers hesitate amid uncertainty.

    Redfin economist Chen Zhao warns that this shutdown could be more damaging than previous ones. Trump’s threat of mass layoffs and the possibility of a volatile market could make buyers nervous, even if mortgage rates dip. Rates tend to fall during a shutdown, so 30‑year rates might slip below 6 %, but job‑security concerns will likely keep many from buying.

    The shutdown would also stop the release of key economic data, complicating the Fed’s policy decisions. Chair Jerome Powell has said future moves hinge on new data, noting that rising inflation and a weakening labor market leave the central bank “no risk‑free path.” Governor Michelle Bowman still sees room for three cuts this year, while newly confirmed Governor Stephen Miran believes the fed funds rate should be near 2 %—about two points lower than today.

    A separate political battle threatens Fed independence. Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage‑fraud allegations has led Cook to sue for her job. An appeals court allowed her to stay on while the lawsuit proceeds, but Trump has asked the Supreme Court to reverse that ruling. A brief signed by former Fed chairs, CEA leaders and Treasury secretaries urges the Court to deny the request, arguing that allowing it would expose the Fed to political pressure and erode public confidence.

    In Washington, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has dissolved its Advisory Committee on Affordable, Equitable and Sustainable Housing, citing a shift in focus to market safety and the “American Dream.” Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has floated a move from quarterly to semiannual earnings reports, claiming the current cadence encourages short‑term thinking. Atkins discussed the idea on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” after Trump suggested a return to a biannual schedule.

    Overall, the shutdown’s indirect effects—heightened economic anxiety, potential market volatility, and disrupted data streams—could slow the housing market’s recovery, even if the core home‑buying engine remains operational.