*
*Mortgage Landscape – September 14, 2025**
- **30‑year fixed**: 6.54 % (↑ 0.04 % from last week)
- **30‑year refinance**: 6.73 % (↓ 0.05 %) – a small but welcome dip for homeowners.
- **15‑year fixed**: 5.64 % (↑ 0.07 %)
- **5‑year ARM**: 7.32 % (↑ 0.56 %)
- **10‑year fixed**: 5.79 % (unchanged)
Rates remain above 6 % for the purchase market, while refinance offers a modest relief. The trend is shaped by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a softening labor market (4.3 % unemployment), and falling Treasury yields.
---
### Key Takeaways
| Item | Detail |
|------|--------|
| 30‑year fixed | 6.54 % |
| 30‑year refinance | 6.73 % |
| 15‑year fixed | 5.64 % |
| 15‑year refinance | 5.51 % |
| 5‑year ARM | 7.32 % |
| Unemployment | 4.3 % |
| Fed cut probability | 91 % for a 0.25 % cut on 16‑17 Sept 2025 |
| Forecast | Rates likely stay > 6 % until mid‑2026 |
---
### Current Rates (Zillow)
| Loan Type | Current | Wk‑o‑W | APR | APR Change |
|-----------|---------|--------|-----|------------|
| 30‑yr Fixed | 6.54 % | +0.04 % | 7.04 % | +0.11 % |
| 20‑yr Fixed | 6.22 % | +0.10 % | 6.54 % | +0.04 % |
| 15‑yr Fixed | 5.64 % | +0.07 % | 5.86 % | +0.02 % |
| 10‑yr Fixed | 5.79 % | — | 6.09 % | — |
| 7‑yr ARM | 6.38 % | –0.55 % | 7.43 % | –0.23 % |
| 5‑yr ARM | 7.32 % | +0.56 % | 7.92 % | +0.38 % |
**Government Loans**
| Loan | Current | Wk‑o‑W | APR | APR Change |
|------|---------|--------|-----|------------|
| FHA 30‑yr | 7.25 % | +1.37 % | 8.28 % | +1.40 % |
| VA 30‑yr | 5.89 % | –0.05 % | 6.11 % | –0.04 % |
| FHA 15‑yr | 5.31 % | –0.07 % | 6.27 % | –0.07 % |
| VA 15‑yr | 5.57 % | — | 5.92 % | +0.02 % |
---
### Refinancing Snapshot
| Term | Rate | Wk‑o‑W |
|------|------|--------|
| 30‑yr Fixed | 6.73 % | –0.05 % |
| 15‑yr Fixed | 5.51 % | –0.02 % |
| 5‑yr ARM | 7.66 % | +0.03 % |
The slight decline in refinance rates expands the window for homeowners to lock in lower costs, especially after a period of rates above 7 %.
---
### Why Rates Look This Way
1. **Fed Policy** – Aggressive hikes from 2022‑mid‑2023 pushed rates to 20‑year highs (≈ 6.6‑6.8 %). Since then, the Fed has paused hikes, debating when to cut next.
2. **Labor Market** – August 2025 jobs report shows a slowdown: unemployment at 4.3 %, only 22,000 new jobs. A cooling labor market supports the case for rate cuts.
3. **Treasury Yields** – The 10‑year yield sits near 4.07 %, its lowest since Oct 2024. Falling yields translate directly into lower mortgage rates.
4. **Market Expectations** – 91 % probability of a 0.25 % cut on 16‑17 Sept 2025, with two more cuts likely by year‑end, could push rates toward or just below 6 %.
---
### Forecasts (2025‑2026)
| Source | 2025 H2 | 2026 |
|--------|---------|------|
| NAR | 6.4 % | 6.1 % |
| Realtor.com | ~6.4 % | — |
| Fannie Mae | 6.5 % | 6.1 % |
| Mortgage Bankers | 6.7 % | 6.5 % |
All projections anticipate a gradual decline but predict rates staying above 6 % through at least mid‑2026.
---
### Monthly Payment Impact – $300,000 Loan
| Rate | Monthly P&I | Difference |
|------|-------------|------------|
| 6.54 % (today) | $1,911 | — |
| 6.00 % (projected) | $1,799 | –$112 |
| 7.00 % (high) | $1,995 | +$84 |
A half‑percent drop saves homeowners over $1,000 annually, underscoring the importance of timing for purchase or refinance.
---
### Bottom Line
Mortgage rates are a barometer of economic signals: Fed moves, labor market health, and Treasury yields. Purchase rates have edged up slightly, while refinance rates have dipped modestly, offering a small reprieve. Rates are expected to stay above 6 % for the near future, but anticipated Fed cuts may gradually lower them. Individual outcomes will still hinge on credit profile and loan specifics.
---
**Strategic Investing Tip**
With rates projected to stay high in 2025, focus on resilient rental markets that generate steady cash flow. Turnkey properties can shield wealth from borrowing cost swings. For personalized guidance, call (800) 611‑3060.
