E
xisting‑home sales are projected to rise about 14 % in 2026, signaling a much‑awaited rebound after years of high borrowing costs and limited inventory, according to National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Yun attributes the upswing to gradually easing mortgage rates, steady job growth, and a more stable market. Home prices are expected to climb roughly 4 % next year, buoyed by resilient demand and ongoing supply constraints that still dominate many regions.

    “Next year will be the first year we see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun said. “Home prices nationwide are not at risk of falling.” Mortgage rates, which peaked at two‑decade highs in 2023, are forecast to average around 6 % in 2026. Yun cautioned that rate movements reflect broader economic forces beyond the Federal Reserve, but the trend points to modest improvements in affordability. “The mortgage rate will be a little better next year,” he added, noting the decline will be modest but meaningful.

    Cities with strong new‑construction activity are likely to benefit most cost‑burdened buyers. Yun highlighted Houston, one of the country’s busiest home‑building markets, as an example of how increased supply can ease price pressure. “Houston is building more homes, making prices more reasonable,” he said. “With job growth, buyers will flock to Houston once rates drop.”

    Deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz presented findings from the NAR’s 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, underscoring demographic shifts. The average home buyer is now 59, and repeat buyers average 62—record highs. Lautz noted that the primary motivation for moving is proximity to family and friends, a trend she dubbed the “grandbaby effect.” First‑time buyers, however, face significant hurdles: their market share has fallen to a record low of 21 %, and their median age is 40. High rents, limited inventory, and student‑loan debt remain major barriers. “The biggest struggle for first‑time buyers is finding an affordable property and saving for a down payment,” Lautz said, adding that high rent and student debt are the most cited pain points.

    Despite these challenges, reliance on real‑estate professionals remains strong. Lautz reported that 88 % of buyers and 91 % of sellers used an agent or broker in their most recent transaction, underscoring the continued value of professionals in pricing, marketing, and securing qualified buyers.