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n analysis of over 17,000 transactions within two months of a major real estate settlement found minimal shifts in commission rates, despite initial predictions that fees would be significantly reduced or eliminated. The National Association of Realtors' $418 million settlement sparked headlines about the potential demise of traditional commissions, but so far, these claims have not materialized.

    According to a study by AccountTECH, commission percentages for listing agents slightly increased, while those for buyer agents marginally decreased in the 60 days following the policy change deadline. The average commission rate for seller agents was 2.738%, up from 2.724% last year, while buyer agent commissions averaged 2.486%, down from 2.541%.

    The study's authors attributed these small changes to normal market fluctuations, but noted that a continued decline in buy-side commissions could have significant implications for agent pay by next summer. If the current trend continues, commission rates on the buyer side could drop to 2% by June 2025.

    Buy-side transactions saw a more substantial decrease, falling about 10% year-over-year during the analyzed period. While factors like mortgage rates and inventory may be contributing to this decline, it's worth monitoring for potential connections to the NAR settlement.

    The study found that most buy-side transactions (around 60%) paid out between 2% and 3% in commissions, with a sizable minority paying less than 2%. Fewer than 500 transactions paid buyer agents above 3%.

    These findings align with reports from brokerage CEOs, who stated they haven't seen significant changes in commission fees. Real President Sharran Srivatsaa noted that his company has focused on preparing agents to handle the settlement's impact confidently, and believes this approach is working.