H
OUSTON—During the recent NAR NXT gathering, John Hentschel, global chair of The Counselors of Real Estate, outlined the sector’s most pressing challenges. A planned “2026 Top Ten Issues” list was interrupted by a fire alarm, but Hentschel highlighted five key concerns that shape the industry’s trajectory.

    1. **Demographic Slowdown**

    Real estate hinges on people, yet migration and population growth are decelerating. Hentschel warned that slower domestic movement, coupled with high mortgage rates, locks homeowners into long‑term loans. “When a 3 % rate is the norm, a 6.5 % rate feels like a barrier,” he said, noting that limited inventory and rising prices squeeze both residential and commercial markets.

    2. **Pricing Risk – The Debt Bomb**

    Commercial properties are approaching peak loan maturities, with a significant portion due in 2025. Private lenders hold nearly 22 % of these maturities. “If banks can’t recover those loans, capital dries up for residential lenders,” Hentschel explained, emphasizing that limited funding threatens mortgage availability for homebuyers.

    3. **Housing Attainability – Beyond Low‑Income**

    Affordability now affects a broader demographic. The average first‑time buyer is around 40, and obstacles include higher interest rates, construction costs, land scarcity, and restrictive zoning. Hentschel urged local officials to reform land‑use policies, zoning, and entitlement rules to ease housing production, positioning realtors as frontline advocates.

    4. **Global Chess – Confidence Crisis**

    Policy volatility—rapid shifts, reversals, and opaque decisions—creates uncertainty that ripples through local markets. “Stability breeds confidence; its absence can paralyze decision‑making,” Hentschel cautioned. He reminded attendees that global trends influence everyday transactions.

    5. **Technological Awakening – The Golden Age**

    The industry is entering a data‑rich era. With advanced analytics and computational power, real‑estate decisions transcend the old mantra of “location, location, location.” Hentschel urged disciplined use of these tools to navigate increasingly complex markets.

    These insights underscore a sector in flux, where demographic trends, debt structures, affordability, policy uncertainty, and technology converge to redefine real‑estate practice.