A
new report from Realtor.com's economic research team suggests that migration patterns over the past four years could influence the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. The analysis is based on online home shopping traffic data from January 2021 to September 2024 and identifies which states are more popular with red or blue home shoppers.

    Among the seven key swing states, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina have drawn greater interest from red home shoppers, while Wisconsin and Nevada seem more appealing to blue home shoppers. Michigan and Pennsylvania showed mixed results, making them crucial in determining the election's outcome if they vote along partisan lines.

    The study combines Realtor.com data with 2020 presidential election county-level results to determine the likelihood of each online home view being associated with a red, blue, or independent voter. The analysis assumes that voting preferences are proportional to current county residence and does not account for factors like income, age, or housing preferences.

    Between January 2021 and September 2024, 56.5% of online traffic on Realtor.com came from blue shoppers, 41.7% from red shoppers, and 1.8% from independent shoppers. The study compares the relative shares of total out-of-state red and blue shopping traffic received by homes in each state, as well as each state's retention rate of red and blue home shoppers.

    Wisconsin, for example, has received more out-of-state buyer interest from blue shoppers than red shoppers over the past four years. It also retained a higher share of searches from blue shoppers searching within the state. As a result, the report suggests that Wisconsin could shift bluer in 2024.

    The study found that migration patterns suggest 22 states could become more red, while eight states plus Washington, DC, could trend more blue compared to the last election. Twelve currently red states and seven blue states could trend redder or bluer, respectively. The impact of these shifts is likely not large enough to switch a state's presidential vote, except possibly in the seven hotly contested swing states.

    Both blue and red out-of-state home shoppers showed great interest in homes in the South, driven by affordable housing markets and warmer climates. Florida was the top online home search state for both affiliations, with a high retention rate among blue shoppers.