A
house for sale in midtown Toronto, Ontario, Canada, July 12, 2017.

    The US housing market remains sluggish halfway through 2025, with first-time buyers facing significant challenges. Despite fresh data indicating a shift towards buyers' favor, the share of first-time homebuyers has plummeted over the past 15 years.

    According to Apollo Global Management's chief economist Torsten Slok, in 2010, 50% of homes sold went to first-time buyers, but today that number stands at just 24%. This stark decline highlights the stalemate between buyers and sellers, with housing inventory piling up nationwide yet prices remaining stubbornly high.

    Redfin reported a record $700 billion in unsold US housing stock in April, despite a 17% price increase. New home sales plummeted by nearly 14% in May, further illustrating the market's freeze. Apollo's US Housing Outlook notes that 44% of consumers believe it's a bad time to buy due to high mortgage rates and tight credit.

    The lock-in effect contributes to this problem, as current homeowners cling to low rates secured during the pandemic era, hesitant to sell. Economic uncertainty persists, fueled by tariffs and cloudy interest rate outlooks, making it increasingly difficult for buyers to enter the market.