T
hinking about buying or selling a house in Las Vegas? The future of the Las Vegas housing market is uncertain, but recent data suggests some modest declines are expected. Zillow's forecast projects a 1.2% decrease in home values over the next year (June 2025 to June 2026). Let's dive into the numbers and trends to understand what this means for you.

    As of mid-2025, Las Vegas' average home value is approximately $438,432, a slight increase of 0.9% year-over-year. However, near-term forecasts predict a modest decline of -1.2% by September 2025, followed by another decrease of -1.2% in the next year.

    Key factors to watch include unemployment rates, job growth, and mortgage rate fluctuations. Inventory is also up, which could impact prices. The current temperature of the Las Vegas housing market shows a more balanced market than recent years, with homes going under contract in about a month.

    Experts predict some softening in the market over the next two years. Zillow forecasts a slight decline in home values, while Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), expects existing and new home sales to increase nationally. The discrepancy between national and local forecasts can be attributed to Las Vegas' unique economy and affordability issues.

    A crash is unlikely, as factors that led to the previous crash are not present today. For 2026, a possible forecast is relatively stable prices with slight appreciations in the second half of the year, slightly below 2025 prices, driven by economic factors such as unemployment rates, interest rates, and job growth.

    Economic trends will impact the housing market, including unemployment, job growth, and population growth. The Las Vegas Valley has seen tremendous population growth, but at a slower rate in recent years. This could mean less demand for housing.

    If you're prepared to make a purchase, it might be an excellent time for first-time buyers to get into the market. Rates may be high, but not as high as they could peak. Inventory is also up, helping both buyers and sellers.

    Ultimately, buying or selling a home is a personal decision that depends on individual circumstances. Do your homework, talk to a real estate professional, and make the best choice for you and your family. Position yourself for stability amid market uncertainty by diversifying into markets with proven resilience.