N
o matter what happens in 2025, will a new administration make a difference for housing in the United States? Republics are fleeting historical exceptions - glitches not features - in government. The upcoming election is an indicator of how much longer the American republic will last, but does it really matter for those struggling to cover housing costs?
Real estate investors, large and small, play a crucial role in activating housing that would otherwise be abandoned or underutilized. Kurt Carlton, president at New Western, a platform helping real estate investors find buyers, believes that investor capital is essential to addressing the housing crisis. He thinks that both candidates' plans for housing are flawed.
Carlton says Harris' policies focus on increasing supply without addressing the underlying causes of the inventory crisis. Her $25,000 down payment assistance program risks inflating demand and driving up home prices, while her $40 billion innovation fund may overwhelm local governments. Restricting Wall Street landlords is unlikely to have a noticeable impact.
Trump's housing policies are unclear, but he has indicated a focus on restoring economic stability by moderating mortgage rates and reducing construction costs caused by excessive regulations. He also proposes utilizing federal land for new housing developments, which Carlton thinks is not the priority. The US already has 15 million vacant homes that could be rehabilitated.
Carlton believes Trump understands the real estate market and would likely support local, small-scale investors who are working to rehab vacant and distressed properties. However, he notes that Trump's track record on taking advice is poor. Harris' plan to build 3 million new homes requires new land, relaxed regulations, and long-term subsidies for builders, which Carlton thinks is unrealistic.
The truth is that neither candidate nor Congress is capable of making big moves in the next two years. The reforms needed at the federal level require support from Congress, a body known for its incompetence. Carlton's thoughts are a breath of fresh air in this election season: he believes local investors can revitalize vacant properties and make housing more affordable without relying on government programs or subsidies.
