Ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting on 16 September 2026, Felipe Villarroel, Portfolio Manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, analyses the current state of American monetary policy. The Fed is confronted with a challenging balancing act: inflation continues to exceed the target level, with recent developments such as rising oil prices creating additional upward pressure. Simultaneously, the US economy is proving remarkably resilient.
Financial markets currently largely anticipate an interest rate hike of 25 basis points, which Mr Villarroel considers the most likely scenario. The crucial question here is not solely the current inflation level, but whether inflation can be brought back to target quickly enough. This is essential to prevent inflation expectations from becoming entrenched in the economy.
Monetary Policy Credibility in Focus
Indirect statements from Kevin Warsh indicate that restoring the Fed's credibility in the fight against inflation is a high priority. The upcoming central bank meeting will therefore serve as the first concrete indicator of how this strategic orientation will manifest in practical monetary policy.
At the same time, rising yields for US government bonds do not exclusively reflect higher inflation expectations. They also reflect increased real yields, stimulated by rising national debt and ongoing political uncertainty. These factors influence the macroeconomic environment in which real estate investments in the US must be evaluated, requiring a precise analysis of the underlying economic dynamics.
- —US Federal Reserve meeting: 16 September 2026.
- —Expert opinion from Felipe Villarroel, Portfolio Manager at TwentyFour Asset Management.
- —Expected interest rate hike of 25 basis points.
- —Focus on restoring the Fed's credibility.
The current situation illustrates the multifaceted challenges for monetary policy, whose decisions have far-reaching implications for global capital markets and thus also for financing conditions in the real estate sector.
