An analysis published by Aroundhome sheds light on the suitability of German properties for heat pump systems. The study, based on publicly available data from the 'Heat Pump Traffic Light' of the Research Centre for Energy Economics (FfE), concludes that, on average, 58.9 percent of buildings in Germany's 20 largest cities meet the technical requirements for at least one heat pump technology. Suitability is largely determined by structural, spatial, and geological factors, including available installation space and soil conditions.
The study highlights significant disparities between the cities examined. For example, while over four out of five buildings (82.5 percent) in Dresden meet the technical requirements, this figure in Düsseldorf is only around two out of five buildings (40.9 percent). These regional differences show that blanket assumptions regarding heat pump potential are not effective.
Swen Dreßen, an expert in energy-efficient living at Aroundhome, points out that political discussions on heating subsidies create uncertainty among property owners. He emphasises the need to make decisions based on the individual structural facts of the property and to seek independent advice. The analysis confirms that the potential for heat pumps, especially in detached and semi-detached houses, is greater in many cities than often assumed.
Urban and Building Type-Specific Suitability
East German major cities tend to have better technical prerequisites for heat pumps. Dresden leads the ranking with 82.5 percent, followed by Bielefeld (78.2 percent), Berlin (74.9 percent), Hamburg (68.1 percent) and Bochum (66.1 percent). Leipzig (66.0 percent), Dortmund (65.0 percent) and Hanover (60.2 percent) also score above average. At the lower end of the ranking are Düsseldorf (40.9 percent), Frankfurt am Main (41.4 percent), Cologne (44.4 percent) and Mannheim (45.1 percent), which is partly due to the dense building structure and associated limitations in utilising ambient heat.
The building type plays a crucial role in suitability. Detached and semi-detached houses offer the best technical prerequisites, with an average of 91 percent. Small multi-family houses with three to six residential units follow at 83.4 percent, while semi-detached houses are at 71.0 percent. Terraced houses (40.0 percent) and large multi-family houses with seven or more residential units (32.7 percent) show significantly lower potential.
Potential of Different Heat Pump Technologies
The choice of suitable heat pump technology depends on plot size, available space and geological conditions. Air-source heat pumps are the most widespread due to their low structural effort, with a nationwide technical potential of 65 percent. Ground-source heat pumps achieve 47 percent, solar ice storage 37 percent, and ground collectors 24 percent. Groundwater heat pumps were not considered in this analysis.
Regional differences are also evident in specific technologies. Dresden (75.9 percent), Berlin (67.7 percent) and Bielefeld (64.2 percent) show the best conditions for air-source heat pumps. For ground-source probes, Bielefeld (55.9 percent), Dresden (52.5 percent) and Bochum (49.2 percent) lead. For solar ice storage, Dresden (40.0 percent), Leipzig (37.4 percent) and Bielefeld (34.8 percent) are at the forefront. Dresden also leads for ground collectors with 27.2 percent, followed by Leipzig (26.8 percent) and Bielefeld (23.9 percent).
In West German major cities, the potential is often lower. For example, air-source heat pumps in Düsseldorf (29.4 percent), Mannheim (30.9 percent) and Frankfurt am Main (32.1 percent) show the lowest values. For ground-source probes, Cologne (13.8 percent), Frankfurt am Main (18.5 percent) and Düsseldorf (20.3 percent) are at the bottom of the ranking. For solar ice storage, Nuremberg (11.0 percent), Düsseldorf (13.1 percent) and Munich (14.4 percent) perform the weakest.
