While large parts of brick-and-mortar retail are experiencing consumer restraint and associated closures, European outlet centres demonstrate remarkably stable market development. This retail format proves largely resilient to the challenges of online trade, similar to food retail. Numerous outlet locations report increasing visitor numbers and sales; significant vacancies are rare. These observations are based on the latest analyses by the economic consultancy ecostra from Wiesbaden, which has been evaluating the European outlet market for over two decades and has now presented its results for 2025/2026.
Despite the positive development in footfall and sales, the dynamic of new market development has slowed significantly. Dr. Joachim Will, Managing Director of ecostra, attributes this to several factors: the markets in Western and Southern Europe show increasing signs of market saturation. Additionally, planning and approval procedures in many of these countries, particularly in Germany, are lengthy and costly. Not least, increased capital and construction costs also contribute to this development.
Decline in Project Pipeline and Expansions
After a long phase of intense project planning, the European outlet market has entered a quieter period. Since the beginning of 2025, only one new opening has been recorded: the Designer Outlet Kraków in Poland, which commenced operations in May 2025 with a rental area of approximately 12,000 m² and has approval to expand to approximately 20,000 m² GLA. Many other project plans have been postponed or abandoned, significantly reducing the project pipeline. Currently, around 20 concrete new projects are under development in Europe, seven of which are in Germany. By comparison: in 2016, there were 62 new projects across Europe, 20 of which were in Germany.
ecostra currently counts 195 operational outlet centres in Europe with a total retail space of over 3.2 million m². The slight increase in space of around 0.1% compared to the previous year resulted from the new opening in Kraków and area expansions in Landquart (Switzerland) and Turin (Italy). The United Kingdom has the largest stock of space, followed by Italy, France, and Spain. Germany ranks fifth with 19 centres and approximately 275,000 m² of outlet retail space. Further increases are expected for Germany, as building permits for expansion plans in Montabaur and Zweibrücken have been granted, although the Zweibrücken plan is still subject to legal challenges.
Intensive Transaction Activity and Investor Interest
In contrast to the slowed site development, the transaction market for outlet centres is extremely dynamic. Dr. Will reports growing interest from institutional investors and family offices who have discovered outlet centres as an attractive investment segment. 2024 marked a record year with an investment sum of approximately EUR 1.8 billion, which was surpassed in 2025. Another record year is also indicated for 2026, with transactions of almost EUR 1 billion already in the first six months.
- —The French Frey Group, together with Cale Street Partners, acquired a portfolio of three outlet centres in Northern Italy from Blackstone and previously the Designer Outlet Berlin from Nuveen Real Estate.
- —VIA Outlets, a company of the Dutch pension fund APG, took over a large outlet centre south of Milan.
- —The Texan fund TPG acquired the Designer Outlet Neumünster.
- —The Simon Property Group, a major US operator, expanded its portfolio with two locations in Northern Italy.
Even in Russia, despite the withdrawal of many brands, a significant transaction took place: the American-Russian joint venture Hines / Belaya Dacha sold a package of two outlet centres to a Russian investor. This represented the largest transaction on the Russian real estate market in 2025. Furthermore, the British self-made billionaire Mike Ashley, with his listed Fraser Group, which includes retail chains such as Sports Direct and House of Fraser, is actively involved in the outlet market.
