German housing construction is experiencing a growing gap between planned and actually realised projects. An analysis of bulwiengesa's Development Monitor shows that of the residential projects with approximately 30.1 million square metres of living space scheduled for completion between the end of 2023 and the end of 2026, around 9.4 million square metres, representing 31 percent of the volume at the time or a calculated 125,000 homes, will not be realised as expected. Felix Embacher MRICS, Managing Director at bulwiengesa, emphasises the importance of the actual creation of living space over mere planning figures and describes the missing homes as an indicator of the scale of the realisation backlog.
As of 30 June 2026, the Development Monitor comprises a total of just under 22,000 projects with an area of approximately 174 million square metres, which represents a decrease of 2.7 percent compared to the same period last year. However, housing construction shows a positive development: the recorded project volume increases by 2.9 percent to around 68 million square metres. Locations outside the classic A to D cities, in particular, record gains of 6.6 percent, followed by A cities with 3.4 percent in the residential segment. Nevertheless, this increase can only be interpreted as a recovery in construction activity to a limited extent. A significant portion of the residential volume, around 31 million square metres, is still in the specific planning stage, while only about 15.5 million square metres are under construction. Construction start figures also give cause for concern: the newly started project volume in the second quarter of 2026 is around 65 percent below the peak of the time series; in the residential segment, the gap to the peak in the second quarter of 2022 is approximately 67 percent. Embacher notes that the increase in the pipeline in the residential segment crucially depends on whether projects can cross the threshold from the planning to the construction stage, which currently represents a significant hurdle.
Delays in the construction process remain a structural problem. Currently, about 29 percent of the residential project volume is affected by delayed construction starts. For completions, the proportion of delays in the residential segment increases from 23 percent for the second half of 2025 to an expected 30 percent for the first half of 2026. Dirk Salewski, President of the BFW Bundesverband Freier Immobilien- und Wohnungsunternehmen (Federal Association of Independent Real Estate and Housing Companies), points out that rising building permit figures do not automatically signify a turnaround. He explains the discrepancy between planning and realisation with increased costs for materials and financing, as well as a lack of simplified approval procedures and the reduction of bureaucratic hurdles. He calls for the introduction of a Type E building law, as well as incentives for investments through special depreciation allowances (Sonder-Afa) and further accompanying measures.
While housing construction shows relative stability, the correction in other types of use continues. The office project volume decreases by 5.7 percent compared to the end of the previous year, to approximately 25.8 million square metres. For logistics projects, the decline is 7.7 percent, to around 50.2 million square metres. The senior living segment also records a minus of 8.4 percent, to about 6.8 million square metres.
