The current BF.Quarterly Barometer, compiled by BF.direkt AG in collaboration with the Handelsblatt Research Institute, recorded a distinct deterioration in sentiment among commercial real estate financiers in the second quarter of 2026. The barometer value dropped from -9.74 to now -25.97 points, signalling a severely restricted willingness to finance. Data collection took place from 8th to 16th June 2026.
The analysis revealed that almost all key financing parameters have worsened conditionally. For instance, 46.15 per cent of respondents stated that financing conditions had deteriorated compared to the previous quarter; in the first quarter, this figure was still 27.27 per cent. The development of new business also showed a negative trend, as 23.08 per cent of respondents reported a decline in Q2, whereas this figure was 0.0 per cent in Q1.
A shift in the composition of credit volumes is also noticeable. Across all institutional sizes, there is an increase in smaller loans under ten million EUR, while financings in the range of 50 to 100 million EUR and over 100 million EUR have decreased. Furthermore, credit decisions were significantly influenced by the risk department in 26.92 per cent of cases, representing an increase of 17.82 percentage points. Simultaneously, new business segments no longer played a dominant role in credit decisions, with a decrease of 7.69 percentage points.
Professor Dr. Steffen Sebastian, holder of the Chair of Real Estate Finance at IREBS and scientific advisor to the BF.Quarterly Barometer, attributed the results primarily to the Iran war and its consequences. He emphasised that the energy price shock is increasing inflation, which in turn reinforces fears of rising interest rates. This affects an industry that has been in a fragile state since interest rates began to rise in 2022. Francesco Fedele, CEO of BF.direkt AG, added that the initial composure of financiers at the beginning of the Iran conflict gave way during the second quarter, leading to the slump in sentiment and the barometer.
Dr. Sven Jung, Director Economic Analysis & Financial Planning at the Handelsblatt Research Institute, highlighted that competition among institutions for good financings is tending to decrease. 26.92 per cent of respondents confirmed this, compared to 5.88 per cent in the previous quarter. At the same time, the proportion of non-performing loans (NPLs) increased: the share of respondents reporting an increase grew from 18.18 to 30.77 per cent. These developments align with the general negative trend in the second quarter of 2026.
Fabio Carrozza, Chief Sales Officer of BF.direkt AG, confirmed these observations from practical experience. He explained that banks are managing their new business more selectively and are increasingly dealing with existing non-performing loans. This ties up resources and reduces their willingness for new financings. The resulting opportunities are being exploited by debt funds to finance fundamentally viable projects that no longer meet stricter banking criteria.
Loan-to-values (LTVs) and loan-to-costs (LTCs), as well as margins, showed less volatility, however. Margins varied depending on the property type and ranged in existing properties from 135.0 basis points for the residential sector to 184.3 basis points for logistics. For project developments, they ranged from 252.7 basis points (residential) to 301.1 basis points (office). Average LTVs for existing properties stood at 64.2 per cent and LTCs for project developments at 66.3 per cent across all property types.
