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*2026 Houston Real‑Estate Outlook – December 30 2025**
**Experts**
- **Shant Banosian** – President, Rate
- **Seita Jongebloed** – Managing Director, Compass
- **Heather Shepherd** – Sales Agent, Douglas Elliman
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### 1. How will buyer and seller expectations shift in 2026?
**Seita Jongebloed**
In 2026 buyers will move from fearing market swings to accepting a new era of steadiness. Inventory will stay near six months and keep climbing, so sellers must focus on competitive pricing and meticulous prep before listing. Buyers will enjoy greater leverage and a wider selection, but they must adapt to mortgage rates that settle between 5.9 % and 6.9 %.
**Heather Shepherd**
Both sides will be better informed and more selective. Luxury buyers will no longer chase every new listing; they’ll prioritize move‑in‑ready, turnkey homes that feel special. Sellers will abandon “test pricing” and recognize that precise pricing, polished presentation, and professional marketing are decisive. Properly positioned luxury properties will still fetch premium prices.
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### 2. The impact of AI, data analytics and emerging tech by 2026
**Seita Jongebloed**
Agents who adopt AI and data tools will run smoother operations, freeing time for client relationships. Knowing how buyers use AI in their searches will be essential.
**Heather Shepherd**
Technology will sharpen pricing accuracy, predict buyer behavior, and refine audience targeting, but it will never replace human relationships. The best agents will use tech behind the scenes while staying hands‑on with clients. High‑net‑worth buyers value insight over algorithms; judgment, discretion and negotiation remain irreplaceable.
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### 3. Strengthening consumer trust and Realtor value
**Seita Jongebloed**
The industry should lift marketing restrictions so Realtors can showcase creative strategies that demonstrate their worth.
**Heather Shepherd**
Trust grows from ongoing relationships and data‑driven education. Realtors must clearly articulate their value—accurate pricing, client‑first negotiation, and navigation of complex deals—to reinforce their indispensable role.
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### 4. First‑time buyers in Houston – progress and gaps
**Seita Jongebloed**
Houston’s master‑planned communities give first‑timers more options than supply‑tight markets. A 30 % rise in townhome and condo inventory offers more affordable entry points than single‑family homes.
**Heather Shepherd**
The city offers down‑payment assistance and lender partnerships, yet rising insurance and taxes keep affordability a hurdle. Education on long‑term costs and ownership responsibilities is crucial; first‑timers need guidance beyond the initial purchase.
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### 5. Market balance – when will sellers regain the upper hand?
**Seita Jongebloed**
Houston remains balanced but slightly buyer‑favored; this trend is expected to continue through 2026, with some neighborhoods still favoring sellers.
**Heather Shepherd**
The market will stay balanced overall, especially in luxury districts like River Oaks, West University, and the Heights. In inventory‑tight neighborhoods, sellers will gain an edge. The economy’s resilience will keep the market robust for both sides.
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### 6. CCP/private listings debate in 2026
**Seita Jongebloed**
Agents will keep fighting to reclaim control over listing content that portals monetize. CCP restrictions may ease by 2026.
**Heather Shepherd**
Private listings will persist, especially in luxury, but with clearer guidelines and greater scrutiny. Transparency and fairness will dominate the conversation; the decision to use private listings will depend on strategy, client, and property.
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### 7. Mortgage rates and policy outlook
**Shant Banosian**
Mortgage rates are projected to stabilize in the high‑5 % to low‑6 % range as the Fed shifts from restrictive to neutral. Inflation cooling and a cautious job market will keep the Fed data‑dependent. Spread compression could lower borrowing costs, boosting consumer buying power and offering lenders a chance to re‑engage clients.
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### 8. Loan products likely to rise by 2026
**Shant Banosian**
Affordability and innovation will drive demand. Buydowns (2‑1, 1‑0) will remain popular, offering early payment relief without hurting sellers. Portfolio and non‑qualified mortgage products—such as debt‑service‑coverage‑ratio, bank‑statement, and asset‑depletion loans—will grow as borrowers fall outside traditional income documentation. Second‑lien and blended‑rate options will help homeowners tap equity while keeping low first mortgages. Down‑payment assistance and multilingual platforms will broaden access for first‑timers and Spanish‑speaking buyers.
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### 9. Evolving lender‑Realtor partnerships
**Shant Banosian**
Successful partnerships in 2026 will be data‑driven, proactive, and co‑branded. Realtors need more than a loan officer; they need a business partner who delivers tools, insights, and solutions that accelerate closings and revive stale listings. Instant buydown analyses, equity alerts, loyalty tracking, and automated marketing assets will replace the old referral‑for‑referral model. Technology will automate processes; human connection will build trust.
